• 27 Nov
    Sunday Edition: Extreme Investor Sentiment Indicates A Tradable Bottom In Gold

    Sunday Edition: Extreme Investor Sentiment Indicates A Tradable Bottom In Gold

    The longer you’ve invested in, or traded financial markets, the more you probably realize just how difficult it is to accurately time financial markets. Pundits and talking heads will tell you it’s impossible. However, after 20 years of trading and investing, including stocks, bonds, currencies, futures, and options, I do believe it’s possible to identify key characteristics that are present at or near every major turning point in virtually every market. More →

  • 25 Nov
    Want To Know What Your Returns Will Look Like In 17 Years? Buffett Has Some Insights

    Want To Know What Your Returns Will Look Like In 17 Years? Buffett Has Some Insights

    • We’ll discuss the primary reasons behind long term returns on investments.
    • With interest rates being close to zero, we have to exclude lower interest rates benefiting future returns.
    • General market conditions create a negative asymmetric risk reward situation, but there is a better option.

    Introduction 

    With the Dow passing 19,000 and the S&P 500 passing 2,200 points, it’s time to take a look at the markets, investors’ expectations, and the real possibilities that those expectations will be met. More →

  • 24 Nov
    Vacation In Europe? Definitely. Invest There? Not So Fast…

    Vacation In Europe? Definitely. Invest There? Not So Fast…

    • The situation in Europe is getting better and will improve further due to its weak currency.
    • The stock market is, however, still risky due to high valuations. But as inflation picks up and required returns increase, stocks should become cheaper.
    • As Europe is very segmented, many risks can arise, so waiting for better risk reward opportunities will pay off.

    Introduction

    In the last two years, the dollar has moved strongly against the Euro while the European stock indexes practically haven’t gone anywhere despite the BREXIT, the Deutsche Bank crisis, and the upcoming Italian referendum.

    Today we’ll analyze the current risk reward situation for U.S. investors wanting to diversify into Europe by analyzing currencies, valuations, and the general politic and economic risks Europe holds. More →

  • 23 Nov
    How To Make Activist Investors Work For You

    How To Make Activist Investors Work For You

    • We’ll analyze the scientific data that explains how activists effect returns.
    • Activism increases returns, but you can increase your returns without paying the 2/20 fees.
    • There is enough time from the first activist announcement to actual fundamentals improving to carefully analyze the investment and make an appropriate decision.

    Activist Investors

    Activists open a position in a company that is large enough to enable putting pressure on management, more often than not in a public way. They put pressure on management because they believe that the company is mismanaged and value can be unlocked through changes in corporate policies, acquisitions, divestments, better use of cash, larger dividends, cost-cutting, better financing options, etc. More →

  • 22 Nov
    Things Are Finally Changing – Are You Ready To Seize The Opportunities?

    Things Are Finally Changing – Are You Ready To Seize The Opportunities?

    • Economic growth has been fueled by credit in the last 30 years with increasingly lower interest rates.
    • A reversal is inevitable and will lower consumption and investments as credit tightens.
    • A 100-basis point increase in corporate debt costs would lower S&P 500 pretax earnings by 6.3%.

    Introduction

    In her latest speech, FED Chair Janet Yellen clearly stated that she expects global economic growth to firm up, supported by accommodative monetary policies abroad, U.S. inflation to reach the targeted 2% level, and the FED to raise interest rates relatively soon.

    After seven years of low interest rates and low inflation, the impact of the above mentioned changes has to be assessed very carefully as there is no recent historical precedent. More →

  • 21 Nov
    Asymmetrical Risk Reward – What It Means For You

    Asymmetrical Risk Reward – What It Means For You

    • “The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not returns.” – Benjamin Graham
    • You should rethink your stocks and bond holdings as most have negative asymmetric risk reward.

    Introduction

    Asymmetrical risk reward is the essence of investing in stocks, and is also essential for those who want to beat the market.

    In today’s article, we’ll discuss what it is, what investment vehicle has the best asymmetrical risk reward opportunities, and how you can apply its benefits to your investments. More →

  • 20 Nov
    Sunday Edition: Time To Buy E. Coli

    Sunday Edition: Time To Buy E. Coli

    Last week we discussed what it means to be a contrarian investor. And why, when done successfully, it can lead to substantial market outperformance.

    Today we are going to discuss a specific contrarian opportunity in the chain restaurant business. More →

  • 18 Nov
    Global Risks Look More Like Opportunities

    Global Risks Look More Like Opportunities

    • From an investing perspective, global risks represent more of an opportunity than real risk.
    • Some chain reactions might still arise from fiscal risks in Europe while many global risks are of a short-term nature.

    Introduction

    Each year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes its Global Risk Report. It’s a great, comprehensive analysis to look at to better understand the world we are living in.

    Today we’ll analyze the global risks from an investing perspective and will arrive at interesting conclusions. More →

  • 17 Nov
    What Buying Olive Oil In Italy Can Teach You About Value & Price

    What Buying Olive Oil In Italy Can Teach You About Value & Price

    • Everybody knows the price of a stock, but few know the actual value.
    • There are a few things that can help you when buying undervalued assets.
    • To determine if you’re investing in a good undervalued investment, consider the company’s probability of bankruptcy.

    Introduction

    This summer, I was in Italy and buying some olive oil. As we use mostly olive oil in our kitchen, I bought 10 liters of this special oil, enough to last for a few months. More →

  • 16 Nov
    The Metal Conundrum After Trump’s Victory

    The Metal Conundrum After Trump’s Victory

    • The current copper spike may not last, but it shows copper’s long-term potential, especially if part of the announced infrastructure program materializes.
    • Unlike copper, other metals aren’t in a sweet spot due to unlimited supply, and recent and large price increases.
    • Gold is the riskiest of all metals, especially now with no more election uncertainty, a stronger dollar, and the expected FED action in December that will have us seeing higher interest rates.

    Introduction

    In the last couple of weeks, metal prices have moved.

    Copper has made an historic surge of 21.5% in the last two weeks, while gold fell 7.5% from its peak.

    As Trump won the election, the expectation of intensified construction and increased investments in infrastructure have pushed copper prices higher while gold suffered as the world didn’t come to an end. The short term moves in metal prices aren’t that significant as they are influenced mostly by speculators, but an analysis can show us where the long-term risks and opportunities lie. More →

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