• 12 Dec
    Hold On To Your Cash

    Hold On To Your Cash

    • A market crash will come, likely sooner than later, as this bull market isn’t based on fundamentals.
    • However, it’s equally important to seize the upside as well as protect yourself from the downside.
    • A cash cushion and knowledge about fundamentals is what will give you the best risk reward scenario for your portfolio.

    Introduction

    You might find this strange: talking about a stock market crash while the Dow is above 19,000, the S&P 500 above 2,241, and the Nasdaq largely above 5,300, and revised economic growth at 3.2% all in the midst of a seemingly never-ending bull market. On top of that, 610 Nasdaq and NYSE companies are currently at their 52-week highs while only 14 are at their 52-week lows.

    Nobody can know when this bull market is going to end, but it will end eventually as the fundamentals fueling it aren’t all that strong. More →

  • 11 Dec
    Sunday Edition: Pigs Get Fat – Hogs Get Slaughtered

    Sunday Edition: Pigs Get Fat – Hogs Get Slaughtered

    The saying I’m using for today’s headline gets used in a lot of different settings, so the odds are pretty good that just about everybody has heard it at one time or another. When I started to learn about directional, short-term trading strategies like swing and trend trading, I had this idea drilled into my head to reinforce the mindset that acting quickly on exit signals, especially if I was profitable, was far better than waiting on the mere hope the stock might keep moving in my favor and give me a bigger profit. It was useful to me then because it helped me start to learn and develop the discipline to disconnect my emotions as much as possible from the investments I made. More →

  • 09 Dec
    Check Your Dividend Yielders Before It’s Too Late

    Check Your Dividend Yielders Before It’s Too Late

    • Higher interest rates will increase required returns while higher debt costs will lower available cash for dividends.
    • However, things vary extremely among sectors so check your portfolio stock by stock.
    • The current 5% shareholder yield is unsustainable with aggregate earnings yielding 3.93%.

    Introduction

    Things are changing!

    We have been enjoying a period where yielders were in high demand as interest rates declined. However, there are two things that will have a severe impact on dividends and asset prices. The first is that low interest rates enabled companies to take on more debt and increase their return to shareholders while keeping their interest expenses low. The second is that with the Fed about to increase interest rates and the yield on the 10-year treasury note up 75% from its July low, the value of your dividend yielders is also about to collapse because stocks simply carry more risk than treasuries. More →

  • 08 Dec
    Brazilian Investment Opportunities

    Brazilian Investment Opportunities

    • Many stocks in Brazil have the potential to double in 2017, but they also have the potential to lose 50%.
    • We’ll briefly describe investment opportunities and our approach to the research.
    • Emerging market volatility should be considered a great thing, not a risk.

    Investing Rationale

    Monday we discussed the current situation in South America. Reading the article, available here, will give you a good intro into what we’ll discuss today.

    The source of our long-term investment ideas comes from constant research on macro trends. These ideas are bound to benefit from positive economic, demographic, and political environments. More →

  • 07 Dec
    Want To Be A Better Than Average Investor? Sven Tells You How

    Want To Be A Better Than Average Investor? Sven Tells You How

    • Average investors don’t even make 50% of the market’s return.
    • The stock market looks simple in hindsight, but behavioral issues stop us from doing the right thing. We’ll see how by looking at an example with Wal-Mart.
    • To make market returns you have to do nothing. But to make above market returns, you have to do what others aren’t willing to do.

    Introduction

    According to Dalbar, average investors don’t do as well as the general stock market. In fact, they don’t come even close. More →

  • 06 Dec
    Read The News, But Don’t Trade On It. Sven Tells You Why.

    Read The News, But Don’t Trade On It. Sven Tells You Why.

    • Today we’ll look at a few examples and discuss how news influences markets and creates opportunities.
    • In the end, trends prevail, so focus on them.

    “Yesterday’s News Is Tomorrow’s Old Paper”

    The job of financial journalists and analysts is to be constantly producing copy to fill the empty spaces in newspapers and online platforms. Wherever you look, there is breaking news, opinions, and analysis about the latest news or hype filled with advice for your portfolio and on what you should do. As most online platforms make money from ads, news has to be constant, spectacular, and sold to you as very important. More →

    By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily Trends
  • 05 Dec
    A Look At Opportunities In South America

    A Look At Opportunities In South America

    • Intensified selling is making emerging markets an interesting opportunity, will selling get to January levels?
    • Brazil has to be watched, of course, but Argentina has too much political risk for rational decisions to be made.
    • Chile is stable, but PE ratios are also much higher.

    Introduction

    After Trump was elected, many emerging markets were hit as a result of a growing negative sentiment toward their performance amidst tougher global trade.

    It’s great when prices go down as it allows you to buy stocks at better prices, if you don’t own too much of the stock, of course. The truth is that many businesses won’t be affected by Trump’s decisions, so it’s a good time to shop around.

    Today we’ll take a look at opportunities in South America. More →

  • 04 Dec
    Sunday Edition: A Debt Bomb Sure To Implode

    Sunday Edition: A Debt Bomb Sure To Implode

    The recent spike in interest rates over the last few months is a hot topic among financial news and media outlets. And it should be – it’s alarming.

    The rate on the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond shot up from 2.10% in early July to over 3% where it now sits. Many, including myself, are now calling for the end of the 35+ year bond bull market.

    I believe when we look back in 20 years, the 177’11 July high in bonds will mark the beginning of a new long-term bear market in bonds. More →

  • 02 Dec
    The Crazy World Of Mining Costs

    The Crazy World Of Mining Costs

    • Don’t take a description of costs for granted as they vary from miner to miner.
    • Mining costs aren’t an accounting metric, but most miners should follow the World Gold Council’s guidelines.
    • Apart from disclosure metrics, there is a metric that doesn’t deceive.

    Introduction

    As gold is getting more interesting as a buying opportunity, it’s important to identify the miners that offer the highest reward for the lowest risk. More →

  • 01 Dec
    The Chinese Are On A Buying Binge. Will Your Portfolio Benefit?

    The Chinese Are On A Buying Binge. Will Your Portfolio Benefit?

    • Positive long term outlooks, sharp technologies, interesting metals, and strong brands are what the Chinese are looking for.
    • The boom in Chinese acquisitions isn’t expected to stop as economic growth and development continues.
    • The Syngenta AG acquisition offer was made at a valuation over 30.

    Introduction

    We all know China has been growing rapidly in the last 30 years. What many don’t know is that through this growth, China has become the second largest global economy and is expected to become the largest global economy by 2030. More →

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