• 25 May
    Retirement Roll of the Dice: How to Make Portfolio Decisions In Today’s Market

    Retirement Roll of the Dice: How to Make Portfolio Decisions In Today’s Market

    • Stock have historically outperformed bonds in the long term but valuations have never been so high as today.
    • The only time in history that the S&P 500 had a higher valuation and the economy was in the growth part of a cycle was in 2000.
    • Analysts and pension funds usually buy high and sell low.

    Introduction

    One of the most discussed financial topics is the best ratio between stocks and bonds or other investments a person should have in order to retire at a certain age with enough funds to last through a long and cozy retirement. As there are many topics related to retirement this article is going to focus on the relation between stocks and retirement. More →

  • 24 May
    Don’t Sweat It: Unexpected Investing Opportunities in the US Retail Environment

    Don’t Sweat It: Unexpected Investing Opportunities in the US Retail Environment

    • The sector differences in growth and valuation create investment opportunities.
    • The sportswear industry looks well balanced between growth and valuation.
    • Online retailers are growing fast but still find it difficult to become profitable for investors.

    Introduction

    On May 13 the Commerce Department reported an advance in monthly US retail and food services sales for April of 1.3% to $453.4 billion, not adjusted for price changes. Inflation was 0.4% for April on a seasonally adjusted basis thus the growth in retail can be assessed as an important spur for the economy. This article is going to analyze sector changes and general trends in order to give some insight on how to better position one’s portfolio. More →

  • 23 May
    Investment Banking Analysts’ Recommendations: Be Aware and Decide for Yourself

    Investment Banking Analysts’ Recommendations: Be Aware and Decide for Yourself

    • Analysts related to underwriting TSLA’s capital raises upgraded the stock just days before the capital raise, twice.
    • Scientific research shows that analysts are strongly biased toward the goal their analysis has, be it underwriting, brokerage commissions or a fund’s short or long position.
    • The best thing to do for the individual investor is to learn about the potential bias an analyst could have and find more differentiating analyses before making a decision.

    Introduction

    TSLA’s stock price has been falling since the last quarterly earnings report that showed a Q1 2016 net loss of $282 million and included an announcement for a new capital raise. The stock slowly declined from a high of $253 at the end of April to last week’s one-month low of $204.66 on Tuesday. More →

    By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily
  • 20 May
    An Analysis of and the Implication of the FOMC Minutes

    An Analysis of and the Implication of the FOMC Minutes

    • An interest rate increase is hanging in the air but no one seems to find enough reasons to pull the trigger.
    • The FOMC expects inflation to be at 2% and interest rates at 2.6% by 2018.
    • Holders of long-term bonds might rethink their positions as interest rate increases could have severe negative repercussions on bond prices.

    Introduction 

    On May 18 the FED released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in April. The FOMC decided not to increase interest rates in April which gave a short relief to the markets, but an analysis of the FOMC meeting minutes reveals interesting things because it gives indications on the way of thinking FOMC participants have and hints on potential future interest rate increases. While the goal of the FED is to maintain financial stability and increase the resilience of the financial system to shocks, for an investor it is important to look at the economic trends related to the FOMC’s decisions in order to better assess the risks of their portfolio. More →

  • 19 May
    Brexit – Much Ado About Nothing

    Brexit – Much Ado About Nothing

    • The Brexit referendum has already caused trouble for the UK economy with slower growth and a falling pound.
    • Fortunately, polls show that the vote will be to stay in the EU.
    • Traders might take advantage of the situation as the pound still has lots of ground to recover to pre-Brexit levels.

    Introduction

    It seems that Shakespeare is still very popular in the UK as the country is staging a referendum on whether or not to stay in the European Union (British exit = Brexit). This article is going to research if Brexit is just a comedy and much ado about nothing, or if there are some real threats to an exit vote. More →

  • 18 May
    A Positive Note From Housing

    A Positive Note From Housing

    • Housing starts, positive homebuilders and a pickup in Chinese building all create a good feeling about the economy and markets.
    • Average house prices have increased but median prices show that the current situation is not even close to a bubble.
    • Rent prices are rising and therefore more buying is expected as people switch to buying instead of renting.

    Introduction

    Recent news about housing is positive. On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders reported the housing market index at 58 where a reading above 50 means that home builders have a positive feeling about the single-family housing market. Two days earlier, on Saturday, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics reported that property investments in the first four months of 2016 rose 7.2% and construction starts gained 21.4%. And on Tuesday new housing starts came in at 1.17 million or 6.6% higher than in March. All of this is very positive news but the most important thing for investors is how this affects the economy and markets. As housing ignited the great recession, it is important to constantly be aware of what is going on in the housing market. More →

  • 17 May
    IPO Numbers Are Falling

    IPO Numbers Are Falling

    • IPO numbers are falling as increased market volatility makes investors cold towards to new issues.
    • Upward pre-IPO price revisions bring to better initial returns.
    • Recent IPO stocks get hammered at any sign of trouble in the markets.

    Introduction

    An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock by a private company to the public. An underwriting firm helps the previously private company determine an offering price and brings it to the market. IPOs can be very risky but also very rewarding; who wouldn’t hope of achieving returns similar to the ones achieved by investors who bought Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) at its IPO? More →

  • 16 May
    Investing Down Under

    Investing Down Under

    • Australia has a stable and transparent economy, is rich in natural resources and the AUD currently looks cheap.
    • The Australian stock index consists of mostly financials but all have excellent ratings.
    • Only 0.09% of the S&P 500 revenues are generated in Australia therefore Australia provides additional international diversification.

    Introduction

    Australia is a country with a population of approximately 23.5 million people, highly developed with a GDP of $47,186 per capita, low unemployment rate of 6.1% and low government debt at 35% of GDP (US 125.3% of GDP). The long term interest rate is at 1.75% and the country is ranked in 13th place on the global doing business list. The Australian economy grew 3% in 2015 and it is dominated by the service sector representing 68%, followed by the mining sector that represents 7% of the economy. The above seems stable and therefore this article is going to provide an analysis about the potential risks and rewards of investing in Australia. More →

  • 13 May
    The Odds for a US Recession

    The Odds for a US Recession

    • The current is the fourth-longest US economic expansion period with 84 months of growth.
    • Investment spending has been declining for the last 4 quarters.
    • Recession forecasts indicate increased chances in the medium term.

    Introduction 

    The scariest word for any investor is the word recession. A recession arises when there is negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. No economic growth makes it difficult for businesses to grow as people tend to spend less and save until better times come around. This creates a spiral as less spending forces companies to lay off employees and further cuts investments. If prolonged economic hardships persist, governments intervene with quantitative easing or with other projects to get the economy going again. A recession has an immediate negative impact on financial markets as investors become more risk averse and seek security above all. More →

    By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily US Economy
  • 12 May
    Is There Equilibrium in Oil?

    Is There Equilibrium in Oil?

    • Production costs are below current prices and reserves are constantly growing.
    • OPEC’s rosy forecast of $70 a barrel in 2020 is based on a model excluding any disruptions from electric engines or renewable technology developments.
    • Demand in developed countries is declining and the trend might spill over to developing countries.

    Introduction

    Oil prices above $100 a barrel seem impossible but they were a common thing just two years ago. 2014 was the worst year for oil as it tumbled more than 50% from above $100 to below $50 a barrel. In January 2016, oil reached lows not seen since 2001 and 9/11 with prices below $30. The current price of oil quickly rebounded from those lows and is currently around $45 a barrel. More →

    By Sven Carlin Commodities Investiv Daily Oil
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