Bonds

  • 20 Jan
    The Long & Short Term Outlook For Bonds Is Scary At Best

    The Long & Short Term Outlook For Bonds Is Scary At Best

    • As we are still far away from the FED’s target interest rate, bonds have plenty more room to fall.
    • Inflation could force the FED to hike rates and push bonds down very quickly.
    • This is probably the end of the 35-year bond bull market that has beaten the S&P 500 by five times.

    Introduction

    I haven’t written about bonds since back in July when I said that bonds were extremely risky (article available here).

    Unfortunately for bond holders, my call was prescient to the point of perfection because yields went up and consequently bonds prices went down. More →

  • 04 Dec
    Sunday Edition: A Debt Bomb Sure To Implode

    Sunday Edition: A Debt Bomb Sure To Implode

    The recent spike in interest rates over the last few months is a hot topic among financial news and media outlets. And it should be – it’s alarming.

    The rate on the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond shot up from 2.10% in early July to over 3% where it now sits. Many, including myself, are now calling for the end of the 35+ year bond bull market.

    I believe when we look back in 20 years, the 177’11 July high in bonds will mark the beginning of a new long-term bear market in bonds. More →

  • 21 Nov
    Asymmetrical Risk Reward – What It Means For You

    Asymmetrical Risk Reward – What It Means For You

    • “The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not returns.” – Benjamin Graham
    • You should rethink your stocks and bond holdings as most have negative asymmetric risk reward.

    Introduction

    Asymmetrical risk reward is the essence of investing in stocks, and is also essential for those who want to beat the market.

    In today’s article, we’ll discuss what it is, what investment vehicle has the best asymmetrical risk reward opportunities, and how you can apply its benefits to your investments. More →

  • 07 Nov
    Why You Should Be Holding Cash Now

    Why You Should Be Holding Cash Now

    • Beware of the financial industry pushing you to invest your cash. They are only doing so because they don’t earn a dime on it.
    • Market circumstances change, so what might be the best option now compared to other assets, might not be the best option in next five years.
    • Cash is a call option and before investing in anything, you should ask yourself what the risks are. Investing in stocks with a 50% potential decline around the corner for a 2% yield isn’t always the best idea.

    Introduction

    In an environment where everyone is looking to find the next best returns boosting investment, an asset that is rarely discussed and often taken for granted is cash.

    Today we’ll discuss the role cash should play in investors’ portfolios, the perspectives we have on cash, and finally, how much cash investors should have in relation to current market circumstances. More →

  • 17 Oct
    Why A Market Crash Could Be Just Around The Corner

    Why A Market Crash Could Be Just Around The Corner

    • We’ll discuss some risks first and then discuss potential rewards.
    • Valuations are the tipping point toward a riskier perspective.
    • After reading this article you’ll be able to decide for yourself what the best strategy is for you to follow.

    Introduction

    In order to see where the market is going, let us first take a look at what the market has been doing in the last two years.

    The market has had a 7% yearly return if we look at it from October 15, 2014, however, if we wait a month, the yearly return for the last two years will fall to 1.8% per year. 1.8% a year plus a dividend yield of 2% isn’t bad in the current low yield environment, but it is bad when compared to the risks stock investors are running. More →

  • 29 Sep
    What Do Investments, Yields & Buybacks Tell Us?

    What Do Investments, Yields & Buybacks Tell Us?

    • The 10-year and 2-year treasury yield spread is getting smaller.
    • Investments peaked last year.
    • The market is standing on legs of hope coming from positive expectations. What are you standing on?

    Introduction

    We will take a look at yields, investments, buybacks and valuations, and look for trends that might trigger a bear market. More →

  • 19 Sep
    Beware The House Of Cards

    Beware The House Of Cards

    • Stocks and bonds don’t provide diversification, while gold only does sometimes.
    • Alternative assets are better, but not all of them are equal.
    • Hedge funds perform well in bear markets but heavily underperform in bull markets.

    Introduction

    The increased market volatility after the quiet summer demonstrates how risky markets can be. The market falling by 2.5% in a few days on practically no news except for an increased probability of a small increase in in interest rates and no additional stimulus in Europe is a sign of the market’s fragility. More →

  • 16 Sep
    Want To Retire Comfortably? Do You Have $2,000,000?

    Want To Retire Comfortably? Do You Have $2,000,000?

    • The low yields we have now increase the amount necessary for a comfy retirement nest egg.
    • $500,000 is only estimated to last for a 13 year retirement. Most retirees will completely miss the mark.
    • Avoid risky assets no matter how tempting might the yield be.

    Introduction

    Last week we discussed the true cost of low interest rates with particular attention paid to pension funding. Many defined pension plans are underfunded, and it’s a situation that has to be dealt with now despite it being against human nature to think about a problem that will only arise in the distant future.

    On top of the problems in defined pension funds, low interest rates have a detrimental effect on general pensions and your retirement. More →

  • 15 Sep
    Troubled Waters Ahead For Developed Markets. Look Here For Returns.

    Troubled Waters Ahead For Developed Markets. Look Here For Returns.

    • Europe and Germany aren’t the best places for international diversification right now.
    • The U.S. is looking a bit better, but you’ll find the best opportunities are mostly in emerging markets.
    • Look for companies that are relatively cheap and that have exposure to China, India, and/or Brazil.

    Introduction

    Two days ago we discussed what is going on in the markets in relation to monetary policies. Today we will discuss what is going on in global economics.

    As the market is showing a high level of volatility, basic economic fundamentals is where we should look to get answers on what to do. By analyzing the latest global economic indicators, we can better determine the risk of a recession in the U.S. and Europe or a slowdown in China, all of which could contribute to a decline in global markets. More →

  • 13 Sep
    What To Expect From The Markets Now

    What To Expect From The Markets Now

    • The German bond’s 3% loss on a 12 basis point yield move shows how risky bonds are right now.
    • The value of the S&P 500 should be around 1,600 but could go lower with bad economic news.
    • Bonds and stocks seem very risky as they both have low yields and large downsides.

    Introduction

    Last Friday was a pretty scary day in the financial markets. The S&P 500 lost 2.45% and bonds also lost ground due to higher yields.

    Stocks and bonds are correlated and don’t provide quality diversification. We have been warning about the risks inherent to bond investing for a while with warnings that the low yields mean high risk and low returns. More →

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