China

  • 29 Aug
    If You’re Thinking About Global Diversification, You Should Read This

    If You’re Thinking About Global Diversification, You Should Read This

    • The developed world is depending, and will continue to depend, more and more on the developing world.
    • The focus of productivity and GDP growth is in Asia.
    • The U.S. is the only country with trade deficits since 1976.

    Introduction

    Nobody knows where the market will go in the next week, month, or year, but what can give investors an edge is to look at macro trends that are bound to influence economies and returns on investments.

    In this article we are going to analyze productivity and trade balances among the most important global economic powers, and try to derive a long term trend from it in order to improve the international exposure in our portfolios. More →

  • 16 Aug
    Emerging Markets Are Hot – Here Is Where You Should Put Your Money

    Emerging Markets Are Hot – Here Is Where You Should Put Your Money

    • Emerging markets are up 10% since our last article on the subject, but the FED’s rate action might quickly erase the gains.
    • Valuations are starting to diverge, but don’t fight the trend.
    • Keep an eye on China as it is relatively undervalued and still boosts economic growth of 6.7%.

    Introduction

    In May we discussed how emerging markets have been rediscovered but are still undervalued. Since then, the emerging markets ETF is up 10%. More →

  • 05 Aug
    Where The Risks Are: It’s Not Where You Might Think…

    Where The Risks Are: It’s Not Where You Might Think…

    • Car sales are in a downtrend and PMI is falling, which ties the FED’s hands.
    • Japan has just entered into direct economic stimulus with $273 billion.
    • The Bank of England behaves like the economy is in a depression, cutting rates and printing money.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we discussed how China isn’t as big of a risk as many would like to make it out to be. Today, we are going to go through the latest data from the U.S., Japan and Europe in order to assess their riskiness. More →

  • 04 Aug
    Forget The News: If You’re Not Exposed to China, You Should Be. Find Out Why.

    Forget The News: If You’re Not Exposed to China, You Should Be. Find Out Why.

    • Don’t be scared by the news, China is growing strong and has incredible future prospects.
    • Temporary bumps are and will continue to be normal.
    • Portfolio diversification with China is essential for increased returns in the future.

    Introduction 

    Exactly a year ago fears around slower economic growth in China, the Yuan devaluation, and oil prices below $40 were the main catalyst for a market correction. The S&P 500 fell from 2102 points on August 17, 2015 to 1867 points on August 25, 2015. More →

  • 17 Jun
    Is Global Recession On Its Way? Brexit May Be A Warning Sign…

    Is Global Recession On Its Way? Brexit May Be A Warning Sign…

    • Global GDP growth rates are stalling even with increased monetary stimulus.
    • There are several potential recession triggers.
    • It is important to assess the risks a portfolio runs as no one can know when a recession will come, but eventually it will as it always has.

    Introduction

    The main FED goals are sustainable economic growth and full employment. In order to achieve those goals, the FED has decided not to increase interest rates as the economy is still relatively weak and employment has been slowing down. Not only that, but the expectation of future interest rate increases has been revised downwards. More →

  • 06 Jun
    Headline Rollercoaster: The Economic Limbo Continues

    Headline Rollercoaster: The Economic Limbo Continues

    • Europe and Japan continue with their easing policies as not much changes.
    • Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index is positive but not far from stagnation.
    • US data flirts between a dead cat bounce and a stronger economic recovery.
    • Finding specific good investments should be the best answer to uncertain economic times ahead.

    Introduction

    Last week was an interesting one as it was filled with various economic news. It is important to summarize that news to see if it will move the needle as the market has moved only sideways since December 2014. More →

  • 18 May
    A Positive Note From Housing

    A Positive Note From Housing

    • Housing starts, positive homebuilders and a pickup in Chinese building all create a good feeling about the economy and markets.
    • Average house prices have increased but median prices show that the current situation is not even close to a bubble.
    • Rent prices are rising and therefore more buying is expected as people switch to buying instead of renting.

    Introduction

    Recent news about housing is positive. On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders reported the housing market index at 58 where a reading above 50 means that home builders have a positive feeling about the single-family housing market. Two days earlier, on Saturday, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics reported that property investments in the first four months of 2016 rose 7.2% and construction starts gained 21.4%. And on Tuesday new housing starts came in at 1.17 million or 6.6% higher than in March. All of this is very positive news but the most important thing for investors is how this affects the economy and markets. As housing ignited the great recession, it is important to constantly be aware of what is going on in the housing market. More →

  • 02 May
    Facts, Fears and Opportunities in China

    Facts, Fears and Opportunities in China

    • Even if China is slowing down, the growth is still excellent and the potential is huge.
    • The Chinese market is 43% down from its 2015 high.
    • Short term fears might give trading opportunities as the long term trend is a growing one.

    Introduction

    In the last twelve months there has been a lot of talk around China with various economic forecasts and explanations which resulted in a severe negative influence on markets ranging from stocks to commodities. This article is going to give an overview of what happened in the last year, and some scenarios of what might happen and how that should influence financial markets. More →

  • 25 Apr
    A Broader Perspective on the Global Economy

    A Broader Perspective on the Global Economy

    • Easing monetary policies go on globally but do not seem to fuel sustainable growth.
    • China is slowing, Japan is looking toward another recession, and the global outlook is adjusted downwards.
    • Bad news might be around the corner, but good news is as well.

    Introduction

    News is usually focused on the latest happenings. The fact that the human brain is set up in a way that it always tries to focus and eliminate marginal information brings to the consequence that most people do not objectively analyze the world around them. An example: How many blue cars have you seen today? Probably none because you were not looking for them, but as soon as you focus on them you will be surprised by how many you will see. The same applies to finance. More →

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