Copper

  • 22 Jun
    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    Why I’m Getting More And More Excited About Copper

    • Forecasts on electric vehicle market penetration are getting more bullish.
    • At the same time, copper is already in a supply deficit.
    • Every copper miner is different, so be careful out there.

    Introduction

    I’m a value investor looking for low risk investments that will lead to high returns. Therefore, when I hear Elon Musk talk, I don’t get excited as an investor because the risk is too high for any potential return as there is a probability that TSLA goes bankrupt when a recession comes along or that it doesn’t turn a profit in the next decade as margins will probably get competed away. More →

  • 24 Apr
    Global Growth Is Finally Getting Some Traction, Be Sure Your Money Follows

    Global Growth Is Finally Getting Some Traction, Be Sure Your Money Follows

    • Macroeconomic trends are extremely important for your investing or trading returns.
    • The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is a great starting point for understanding where the risks and opportunities lie.
    • Long term trends show emerging markets and commodities are the place to be.

    Introduction

    Investing is both difficult and easy. It’s difficult if you try to guess what the market’s sentiment will be next week or next month, while it’s easy if you simply look at slow moving structural macroeconomic trends. These trends are like little forces that shape the market, similar to the gravitational forces among planets in our solar system. More →

  • 19 Feb
    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

    The Escondida mine problems are only the tip of the iceberg for Copper, which appears to be in a bit of a panic since workers of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida copper mine in Chile started an indefinite strike on February 9, forcing a force majeure declaration on its shipments.

    Adding more fuel to the fire is a one-month delay to exports at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine when Freeport-McMoRan suspended copper concentrate output while in negotiations with the government over the terms of its mining permit which has expired. More →

  • 17 Feb
    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too

    • Copper bottomed in 2016 and the outlook remains bullish in the long term.
    • The short term could also offer positives due to strikes and political issues.
    • The long term balance for copper should be above $3.5 per pound and that price will be increasing due to lower copper ore grades and higher mining costs.

    Introduction

    The last time I wrote exclusively on copper was in April 2016. The bullish article is available here. Since then, copper prices have increased 22%, from $2.22 per pound to the current $2.73. As the dollar has also strengthened by 7% since then, we should add 7% to the current copper price to show the real appreciation in copper. Thus, copper would be at $2.92 in real terms. More →

  • 30 Jan
    There’s Buzz Around Cobalt But Don’t Buy Yet

    There’s Buzz Around Cobalt But Don’t Buy Yet

    • The cobalt hype reminds me of the 2008 uranium and 2011 rare earth element spikes. Both ended badly for investors.
    • The bull case is tempting, but you should always investigate mining costs of junior miners because the cheapest way to get to cobalt is as a by-product, and there are big copper mines that can supply it.
    • Be careful of dilutive capital raises, liquidity issues, and stock liquidity and all other issues that penny stocks have, no matter how attractive the cobalt pitch might seem.

    Introduction

    Many of you might be wondering what’s going on with cobalt as its price has gone up lately which has created an interesting buzz in the financial world.

    On top of it, many mention cobalt alongside sexy names like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) which further increases the buzz.

    Today I’ll shed some light on cobalt in order to see if there is a long term profitable trend forming in its supply and demand, or if it’s just a fad like rare earths, graphite, or uranium were back in their days. More →

  • 24 Jan
    Will Your Portfolio Explode Or Implode? A Look At Uranium

    Will Your Portfolio Explode Or Implode? A Look At Uranium

    • The short and medium term don’t look that great for uranium as military inventories, idled reactors, and negative sentiment push prices down.
    • In the long term, increased demand from new nuclear reactors should eventually push prices higher and may create tremendous returns given the current low investment environment – think 3 to 10 years.
    • In the long-long term, there is plenty of uranium for the next thousand years.

    Introduction

    Uranium has been in a five-year long price slump with several factors having impacted the decline.

    The 2011 Fukushima disaster forced Japan to idle its reactors. According to the Nuclear Energy Institute, only three reactors of the 42 commercially operable are currently in use in Japan. As Japan represents one third of global nuclear capacity, this blow was tremendous for uranium. More →

  • 16 Nov
    The Metal Conundrum After Trump’s Victory

    The Metal Conundrum After Trump’s Victory

    • The current copper spike may not last, but it shows copper’s long-term potential, especially if part of the announced infrastructure program materializes.
    • Unlike copper, other metals aren’t in a sweet spot due to unlimited supply, and recent and large price increases.
    • Gold is the riskiest of all metals, especially now with no more election uncertainty, a stronger dollar, and the expected FED action in December that will have us seeing higher interest rates.

    Introduction

    In the last couple of weeks, metal prices have moved.

    Copper has made an historic surge of 21.5% in the last two weeks, while gold fell 7.5% from its peak.

    As Trump won the election, the expectation of intensified construction and increased investments in infrastructure have pushed copper prices higher while gold suffered as the world didn’t come to an end. The short term moves in metal prices aren’t that significant as they are influenced mostly by speculators, but an analysis can show us where the long-term risks and opportunities lie. More →

  • 04 Nov
    This Metal Offers The Best Risk Reward Potential… And Has A Minimum 50% Upside Potential.

    This Metal Offers The Best Risk Reward Potential… And Has A Minimum 50% Upside Potential.

    • Copper consumption in relation to GDP per capita is essential for understanding the future demand for the metal.
    • At higher than $1.5 per pound, the copper cost curve becomes very steep indicating a sharp boom in copper prices when deficits eventually arise.
    • The five-year investment perspective necessary for copper seems long, but returns of 1,000% are on the table.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we discussed iron ore, aluminum, platinum and zinc. Today we will focus in on copper.

    Copper prices haven’t moved much since the beginning of this year, trading in a range between $2 and $2.2 per ounce. More →

  • 03 Nov
    Which Metals Are Shining The Most In 2016?

    Which Metals Are Shining The Most In 2016?

    • The issue with aluminum and iron ore is that there is plenty of both.
    • Platinum demand is related to demand for internal combustion engine cars.
    • Zinc might continue to be a winner if China continues to grow at the rates it has been.

    Introduction

    As metal prices are very volatile in nature, it’s important to regularly check on what’s going on in order to see where the greatest opportunities and risks are.

    Today we’ll walk through the main investable metals, and look at structural trends, demand and supply balances, and investing opportunities. More →

  • 02 Nov
    Are You Ready For The Tech Revolution? Sven Tells You How To Position Yourself

    Are You Ready For The Tech Revolution? Sven Tells You How To Position Yourself

    • New technologies are coming fast and will be coming faster in the future.
    • It’s important to avoid getting caught in a declining industry, but it’s also important to not buy into the hype of growth industries at crazy valuations.
    • We’ll try to find sectors that will benefit no matter what happens.

    Introduction

    Last week’s unveiling of Elon Musk’s new “solar roof” poses a very important question for investors: How is your portfolio positioned in relation to structural changes and disruptive technologies?

    We might look at solar roofs as uneconomic at the moment—or call a CEO crazy who wants to colonize Mars—but the trends are here to stay. Rare are those among us who would have reacted positively 20 years ago to the idea that it would soon be the same process buying an electric powered or a gasoline fueled car. More →

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