Warren Buffett is the living gold standard of value investors today; practically every different approach to determining how much a stock should be worth borrows from some element of the methods Mr. Buffett has employed in building his wealth and reputation over the course of decades. More →
Since hitting an all-time early this year, the Materials sector has seen some of the biggest declines in the broad market. And even while today marked a big surge in price for practically every economic sector, Materials still dropped, putting their decline since late January at about -16% and nearly -11.5% year-to-date as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 Materials ETF (XLB). More →
One of the most interesting things to me about the stock market is that there really are as many different ways to invest your money as the human brain can imagine. That’s one of the reasons that there are so many different kinds of mutual fund and ETF choices geared for the average investor. One of the reasons that is so interesting is because that reflects another market reality: More →
More than two decades ago, I was just getting my start in the financial industry, working as a licensed representative for a major mutual fund company. In order to help new hires like me get more familiar with what mutual funds were about, and to start learning how the stock market worked, my employer encouraged studying the investment philosophies of a lot of the most well-known fund managers of the day. At the time, that meant paying attention to the “rock stars” of the mutual fund industry, and at that time there weren’t too many more popular or well-known names than Peter Lynch. More →
There’s really nothing like a little bit of volatility in the stock market to make people sit up and take notice. Whether you’re a seasoned, everyday investor or a relative neophyte putting a couple of hundred dollars each month into a 401(k) account, the last couple of days have prompted just about anybody that is trying to make their money work for them with the stock market wonder what is going on. More →
Sometimes, answering the question of whether a stock represents a legitimate, attractive value opportunity can be hard to do. A company could be struggling not only to grow its business, but may be forced to restructure its business in a way that makes most of the traditional measurables investors like to use look very unfavorable. More →
Over the last week, uncertainty appears to have become the primary theme of the market, as concerns over interest rates and global growth are starting to take hold and lead investors to question the market’s ability to sustain its long, bullish trend. As of this writing, in fact, the S&P 500 is sitting right on top of its 50-day moving average line, an indicator that a lot of technical investors like to use as a visual queue for the market’s intermediate-term trend. A break below this line could signal at least a short-term reversal, with more downside ahead that could see the market drop as much as another 4% before finding its next support level. That’s not exactly correction territory, but it is enough short-term downside to keep uncertainty high and prompt investors to start looking for “safe haven” investments that offer some measure of protection should things get even worse.
If the market keeps dropping, I think there could be some very interesting opportunities in defensive industries, and as I wrote yesterday, I think some of the best valuations in the market right now are coming in the consumer sSJMles sector in general, and the food industry in particular. If you’re looking to be conservative about the positions you take, it’s smart to be selective about how many stocks you buy in a single industry, and so even though I’ve been highlighting different stocks in the industry that I think offer interesting value propositions, you should take some time to compare each one carefully and decide for yourself which ones you think would offer you the right mix of opportunity, fundamental strength, and risk management.
One food company that I do think is really interesting right now is The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM). The name probably makes you think about the same products I do – fruit spreads. That’s because the company’s namesake Smucker’s brand is the #1 fruit spread brand; but this is a company that also owns the leading peanut butter (JIF), coffee (Folger’s), and dog snack (Milk-Bone) brands. When you consider they own other well-known brands like Crisco, Dunkin’ Donuts, Kibbles ’n Bits, and Carnation, to name just a few, you have a company with a pretty well-diversified product line that covers a pretty broad spectrum of the packages food industry. There are some risks about the food industry that have started to impact some important measurable components of SJM’s profile; however for the most part, this is a company with strong fundamentals, including good cash flow, decent (albeit declining) margins, and manageable debt. They also carry a very attractive dividend yield right now, with a very compelling long-term value proposition. Let’s take a look.
The J. M. Smucker Company is a manufacturer and marketer of branded food and beverage products and pet food and pet snacks in North America. The Company’s segments include U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and International and Foodservice. The Company’s U.S. retail market segments consist of the sale of branded food products to consumers through retail outlets in North America. In the U.S. retail market segments, the Company’s products are sold to food retailers, food wholesalers, drug stores, club stores, mass merchandisers, discount and dollar stores, military commissaries, natural foods stores and distributors, and pet specialty stores. In International and Foodservice, the Company’s products are distributed domestically and in foreign countries through retail channels and foodservice distributors and operators, such as restaurants, lodging, schools and universities, healthcare operators.SJM’s current market cap is $11.6 billion.
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
Over the last few days, one of the things that has put the market a little bit on edge is concern that interest rates could be forced higher sooner than possible. Fed chair Jay Powell gave investors room to start feeling anxious last week when during a televised question and answer session, More →
A few days ago, I wrote about the fact that oil prices have been surging for the last few weeks. While the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has dropped a bit from a peak a little above $76, it remains close it, sitting as of this writing just a little below $74 per barrel. This latest surge has pushed oil prices to levels not seen in four years, when oil in the midst of an historical plunge that didn’t find a bottom until the beginning of 2016. More →
Warren Buffett is easily the most recognizable value investor in the world. He didn’t invent the idea – his college instructor and mentor, Benjamin Graham, gets credit for pioneering the concept of determining how much a company should be worth based on its book of business – but he may be the most successful value investor of all time. The annual reports he has written for decades for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) are major events for other value investors for the insights they offer about his investing methods and attitudes about current market conditions. He’s also pretty quotable; one of my personal favorites among his many descriptions about value investing refers to it as “buying a good stock at a nice price.”
One of the most impressive-performing sectors in the market throughout the year has been the Consumer Discretionary sector; as of this writing, and as measured by the SPDR Select Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY), the broad sector has increased in value by more than 13% year-to-date. On a more focused scale, department stores have been a mixed bag; some, like TGT, KSS, and M have increased by 30 to 50% or more, while others, like JWN and DDS have only seen modest increases in price.
Macy’s Inc. (M) is an interesting case, not only for its impressive performance year-to-date, but also for the fact that despite the fact that is nearly 31% higher so far this year, it remains deeply discounted; after hitting a peak at around $42 in mid-August, the stock has dropped back nearly 22% to its current levels. That actually doesn’t even speak to the fact that at its current price, this fundamentally solid company is trading at an extreme discount based on more than one of my favorite valuation metrics.
Macy’s, Inc. is an omnichannel retail company operating stores, Websites and mobile applications under various brands, such as Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury. The Company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories (men’s, women’s and children’s), cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. Its subsidiaries provide various support functions to its retail operations. Its bank subsidiary, FDS Bank, provides credit processing, certain collections, customer service and credit marketing services in respect of all credit card accounts that are owned either by Department Stores National Bank (DSNB), which is a subsidiary of Citibank N.A., or FDS Bank. The private label brands offered by the Company include Alfani, American Rag, Aqua, Bar III, Belgique, Charter Club, Club Room, Epic Threads, first impressions, Giani Bernini, Greg Norman for Tasso Elba, Holiday Lane, Home Design, Hotel Collection, John Ashford, Karen Scott, Thalia Sodi and lune+aster. M’s current market cap is $10.1 billion.
Here’s a look at the stock’s latest technical chart.
