Investiv Daily

26 Jul
Central Banks Have Made The Rich Richer. Here’s How To Take Advantage.
Central banks have intentionally inflated asset prices that benefit those who own assets, while wages and real prices have remained equal.

There’s no case for being a saver. The risks are too high for miserable returns.

I’ll discuss three options to protect yourself and take advantage of the next quantitative easing rounds.

Introduction

In the last 10 years, the financial environment has changed significantly. You might not see it in your everyday life, but the 2007 environment and the environment today are hugely different. The wealth effect hasn’t really worked as Central Banks had planned and has significantly skewed asset values compared to fundamentals.

In today’s article, I’ll describe what happened, compare it to what the previous situation was, show who benefited from the significant monetary policy market intrusions, and who will keep benefiting in the future to find ways to take advantage of the situation. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Central Banks Commodities ECB FED Interest Rates Investiv Daily Stocks US Economy
25 Jul
Is It Time To Invest In Natural Gas?
There are many influences on natural gas in the short term, but the long term is pretty clear.

Despite the growth in demand, there is no supply gap expected, and thus cost and moats should be looked for in potential investments.

As the long-term trend is positive, it’s a good thing to buy when there is pessimism in the sector, which is usually for a relatively short period.

Introduction

I recently wrote an article on oil where I discussed the implications of and best timing to invest in oil. A commodity that is closely related to oil is natural gas. However, the long-term supply and demand trends are a bit different than those for oil which make natural gas an interesting long-term investment opportunity. More →
By Sven Carlin Commodities Energy Sector Investiv Daily Natural Gas Russia
24 Jul
It’s Feeling A Lot Like 2007 – Are You Prepared For The Next Crash?
There’s nothing to worry about. Everything looks exactly the same as it did in July 2007 when no one was worried because the S&P 500 was breaking new highs.

Even the statements from the FED’s 2007 chair and the chair of it today look alike.

This doesn’t mean there will be a crisis in 2018, but it sure means you have to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

Last week I published an article describing how strong the trend is that is pushing the S&P 500 higher. There is plenty of liquidity, corporations are doing big buybacks, and most investors are putting their money into passively managed investment vehicles. More →
By Sven Carlin Corporate Earnings FED Interest Rates Investiv Daily Janet Yellen Market Forecast
23 Jul

Sunday Edition: Don’t Fear The Reaper. It’s Not Coming For This Retailer.

Looking at the retail sector over the last couple of years, it’s not difficult to imagine the grim reaper (or maybe just Amazon) coming for what remains of shopping mall staples and other brick-and-mortar retailers.

The number of bankruptcies and closures is astounding. So far this year, more than 300 retailers have filed for bankruptcy, up 31% since this time last year. While most of those filings were from small Mom & Pop stores, there are some pretty big household names on the list too.

Gymboree. Payless ShoeSource. Gordman’s. RadioShack. Teen clothing retailer Wet Seal. Women’s retailers The Limited and Bebe. More →

By Kristina Keene Investiv Daily Sunday Edition Technical Analysis
21 Jul
Why Investing In Australia Is A Good Idea Now
Positive demographics, strong economic growth, a good business environment, and relative cheapness is what you should look for when investing abroad.

Australia has it, and on top of it, Australia offers a high dividend yield and a large potential currency tailwind.

The ETF is highly skewed toward financials but a decent stock picker can find a few great picks on the Australian stock market.

Introduction

Before investing in a country, I first like to check the demographics because it’s an easily predictable trend that has a huge impact in the long term.

Because demographics are a long-term trend, it’s usually shunned by most analysts, but a population that grows at 3% per year adds at least 30% to a country’s GDP over 10 years in comparison to a country without population growth (think some European countries). More →
By Sven Carlin Australia Commodities Dividends International Diversification Investiv Daily
20 Jul

Sven’s List Of The Five Books Every Investor & Trader Should Read

I love books on investing, and find them to be the best possible investment. For just a few bucks, you can get the synthesized knowledge of the most successful investors. On top of that, many also discuss their mistakes, which are an even more valuable source of learning.

So with that, today I’ll the list the books on my list that I think every investor or trader should read alongside a short commentary. More →

By Sven Carlin All-Weather Portfolio Benjamin Graham Black Swan Events Charlie Munger George Soros Investing Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Peter Lynch Ray Dalio Seth Klarman Trading Warren Buffett
19 Jul
The Big News From China & What It Means For Your Portfolio
The Chinese economy surprised to the upside and Chinese stocks have spiked.

A fundamental analysis shows that Chinese stocks are still 50% undervalued.

The Chinese economy is less risky and growing faster, but the market hasn’t yet fully recognized the situation which makes this the best time to invest.

Introduction

One of the greatest fears circulating the investing environment in the last few years has been that China is about to slow down and drag the whole world into negative territory. I found such a fear a bit silly because it wasn’t based on proper macroeconomic analysis but mostly on western investors’ perception. More →
By Sven Carlin China Emerging Markets International Diversification Investiv Daily
18 Jul
No Matter How Crazy The Trend It, Don’t Fight It
The economy has only grown 18% in the last 9 years while the stock market’s growth is measured in three digits.

Such imbalances can only last as long as the factors creating them persist.

A massive drop in stocks awaits us, but it won’t happen all that soon as the flow of funds is too strong.

Introduction

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY) is up 259% since March 2009, and is showing no intention of stopping. More →
By Sven Carlin FED Investiv Daily Nasdaq Passively Managed Funds S&P 500 US Economy
17 Jul
How The Economic Machine Works & Why You Need To Prepare Your Portfolio For It
Productivity growth is the long-term key, make sure your portfolio follows it.

The global distribution of wealth is shifting very quickly.

Preparing your portfolio for what’s going to happen doesn’t even cost that much. On the contrary, it is even more profitable.

Introduction

Ray Dalio is famous for many things. One of them is his explanation of how the economic machine works where he describes how productivity growth, the long-term debt cycle, and the short-term debt cycle affect an economy.

Today, I’ll briefly summarize his findings as they are reported in a 300-page document and, most importantly, see how Dalio’s economic philosophy can affect our investing strategies. More →
By Sven Carlin Central Banks China Commodities Credit Cycle Emerging Markets India Inflation Interest Rates International Diversification Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Market Forecast Ray Dalio
16 Jul

Sunday Edition: What Asset Class Rises 300% In 2 Months?

To say the last few months have been wild for cryptocurrencies would be to put things mildly.

On April 1, all cryptocurrencies combined had a market cap of $25 billion. But by the beginning of June, that number had risen to just over $100 billion. That’s a 300% increase in value in just over 60 days…

By now, I imagine every investor has heard of bitcoin and it needs no introduction. The digital currency heavyweight itself was up roughly 160% in the same time frame, but the growth of other digital currencies contributed as well. Ethereum, for one, increased 439% in the same two months. More →

By Kristina Keene Bitcoin Commodities Cryptocurrencies Investiv Daily Sunday Edition