Investiv Daily

  • 26 Aug
    How Dangerous Is Common Retirement Advice?

    How Dangerous Is Common Retirement Advice?

    • Things are much different than they were 10 or 20 years ago but everyone seems to follow the same retirement investing advice.
    • As retirees are in need of more security they are now forced into more risk as bonds have become riskier than stocks while also giving a lower yield.
    • If you’re looking for security, cash may be your best bet.

    Introduction

    You’ve likely heard the advice that as you get closer to retirement you should move toward having a bigger chunk of your portfolio in bonds rather than stocks. Most retirement funds are structured in that way. Vanguard Target Retirement Funds allocate 90% of assets in equities and 10% in bonds if you are going to retire between 2058 and 2062, thus 45 years from now. More →

  • 25 Aug
    The Future Will Blow Your Mind. How Can You Take Advantage Of It?

    The Future Will Blow Your Mind. How Can You Take Advantage Of It?

    • Global GDP has quadrupled in the last 35 years and will probably do so again in the next 35 years.
    • By 2050 it’s expected there will be 10 billion people on earth and most of them will be living a western lifestyle.
    • While the forecasts are pretty certain, the issue is that the way towards those forecasts will not be linear. Investors should be careful not to get excited and jump into bubbles.

    Introduction 

    Investing is both complicated and simple at the same time. Today we are going to show the simple side of investing by analyzing a few factors that are almost certain and that will have a huge influence on your investing returns. By analyzing a few global demographic and economic trends we can see where the world will be in the future and connect that with our investments pictures, a scenario that is actually mind-blowing. Keep reading… More →

  • 24 Aug
    Carl Icahn Is Right, But When Will The Market Learn?

    Carl Icahn Is Right, But When Will The Market Learn?

    • Carl Icahn has been warning us how dangerous low interest rates are as they create bubbles.
    • The most important bubble is the earnings bubble.
    • Repatriation and inversions are two crucial issues for the U.S.

    Introduction

    We are continuing with our series of articles on successful fund managers. You can read more about Ray Dalio here, George Soros here and Peter Lynch here. Looking at what these successful managers are doing gives us a better understanding of the market, its potential and its inherent risks.

    In today’s article we are going to look at Carl Icahn’s investing style and look at his current positions through his latest SEC filing. More →

  • 23 Aug
    Are You An Investing Optimist? Check Your Portfolio

    Are You An Investing Optimist? Check Your Portfolio

    • Investors are very optimistic in bull markets and allocate much of their portfolio to stocks, increasing their risk.
    • Analysts and economists expect more spending which will consequently push GDP and inflation up, but low rates push people to save more for their retirement.
    • If the GDP and earnings don’t grow as expected, we could see a bear market in 2017.

    Introduction

    Stock markets keep going up while fundamentals keep going down and the economic situation isn’t that great either. The S&P 500 is dancing around new highs despite corporate earnings for Q2 falling by 3.6%, and the economy only growing by 1.2% on an annualized basis. Economic growth for the whole of 2016 is only at 1%. More →

  • 22 Aug
    The Important Insights From The FOMC Minutes No One Is Talking About

    The Important Insights From The FOMC Minutes No One Is Talking About

    • The FED’s “protect the market at all costs” attitude minimizes the risk of a severe bear market but increases the risk for an inflationary environment.
    • Trade deficits and low productivity are not good signs for the long-term, no matter the positive data from the labor market.
    • Until the focus shifts from central banks to real structural reforms, sluggish GDP growth could easily turn into a recession.

    Introduction

    There are more important insights that can be gained by going through the FOMC minutes than by just reading the news about an eventual interest rate increase. An interest rate increase of 0.5% won’t change much. It will give the news something to talk about for two weeks and from then onwards it will be business as usual. Structural risks and what the FED is ready to do or not do in the case of turmoil is what will determine our investing returns. More →

  • 21 Aug
    Sunday Edition: Stop Losses and Value-Oriented Income Generation

    Sunday Edition: Stop Losses and Value-Oriented Income Generation

    Today’s Sunday Edition discusses the biggest reason why your investments might be underperforming, and why the Rebel Income system isn’t subject to this one fatal flaw, which might explain the nearly 30% annual returns over the last two years.

    In a study conducted by Dalbar Inc.—the nation’s leading financial services market research firm—through 2014, the 20-year annualized S&P return was 9.85% while the 20-year annualized return for the average equity mutual fund investor was only 5.19%, a gap of 4.66%. More →

  • 19 Aug
    The U.S. Dollar: Should You Stick To It Or Diversify Now?

    The U.S. Dollar: Should You Stick To It Or Diversify Now?

    • The dollar has been positively correlated with stocks for the last 4 years which is unusual.
    • Potential FED interest rate increases don’t make international diversification a great idea right now.
    • Any sign of a U.S. recession should be a good time to think about international diversification with emerging markets.

    Introduction

    On big news sites like Bloomberg you often come across headlines related to the movement of the U.S. dollar. The headline below is a good example. More →

  • 18 Aug
    Commodities: Stick To The Fundamentals, Beware Of Speculation

    Commodities: Stick To The Fundamentals, Beware Of Speculation

    • Oil prices are increasing the number of rigs, putting pressure on prices.
    • Soros sold his gold, should you?
    • Iron ore is hot, but waiting until winter might provide better purchasing opportunities.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we discussed how Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (or TIPS) are a great protection during times of inflation. Today we are going to take a deeper look into another great inflationary protection, commodities.

    The general feeling is that commodities have surged since January, but there is a high level of divergence. This divergence in commodity price movements is due to speculation in some commodities and fundamental reasons in others. More →

  • 17 Aug
    Are Safe Havens Really That Safe?

    Are Safe Havens Really That Safe?

    • Economic laws can’t be muted forever, and in the end always get their due, therefore it is good to look at other options to de-risk your portfolio.
    • Gold is too volatile to be considered a safe haven.
    • Diversification should be the best option to avoid losing everything in a market downturn.

    Introduction

    Economics is pretty straightforward. The first thing they teach you in ECON 101 is that the economy works in credit cycles. In a positive environment with low risks and low base interest rates, people borrow and spend. They buy a new car, go on trips, refurbish the kitchen and so on, which leads to economic expansion. More →

  • 16 Aug
    Emerging Markets Are Hot – Here Is Where You Should Put Your Money

    Emerging Markets Are Hot – Here Is Where You Should Put Your Money

    • Emerging markets are up 10% since our last article on the subject, but the FED’s rate action might quickly erase the gains.
    • Valuations are starting to diverge, but don’t fight the trend.
    • Keep an eye on China as it is relatively undervalued and still boosts economic growth of 6.7%.

    Introduction

    In May we discussed how emerging markets have been rediscovered but are still undervalued. Since then, the emerging markets ETF is up 10%. More →

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