Investiv Daily

  • 21 Sep
    Heavy Machinery & Auto Stocks – Is Now The Time To Buy?

    Heavy Machinery & Auto Stocks – Is Now The Time To Buy?

    • Heavy equipment seems to be in the midsts of a supply glut where the risks outweigh the rewards.
    • Emerging markets are the key for car manufacturers, and positioning for growth there is essential.
    • Car manufacturers offer the possibility for long term outperformance by proper due diligence and geographic growth analysis.

    Introduction

    Heavy equipment, machinery and automotive manufacturing are important parts of the economy, but the sector is a cyclical one. In periods of economic growth, the majority of people buy new cars, and new infrastructure and homes are built, which increases the demand for machinery. However, this demand only lasts up to a point after which people have already purchased their new car—and aren’t likely to replace it for 7 years—and there is an abundance of machinery available as machinery is typically made to last for more than 20 years. More →

  • 20 Sep
    7 Years In & Valuations Matter More Now Than Ever Before

    7 Years In & Valuations Matter More Now Than Ever Before

    • Volatility can tell you when to buy, but valuations tell you when to sell.
    • In the 2000s, faster than expected earnings growth, low transaction costs and reduced risks from lower volatility were considered factors of the “New Era” for stocks.
    • These days, low interest rates and low inflation are new factors that create the “New Era,” while the PE ratios just grow and grow. Does this sound familiar?

    Introduction

    Apart from professionals, you rarely find investors who are passionate enough about their investments to make it their day-to-day and weather through the peaks and troughs in the market.

    There are many traders, especially young ones, who were unaware of what stocks were back in 2009 that now believe they are the kings of the world as a result of the tailwinds of the current bull market. In such an environment, valuations are ignored and investors become euphoric which makes them believe, for example, that the merging of Tesla and Solar City is a good idea, or that Facebook will have everlasting growth. In reality, our “new normal” is one of negative interest rates and low yields. More →

  • 19 Sep
    Beware The House Of Cards

    Beware The House Of Cards

    • Stocks and bonds don’t provide diversification, while gold only does sometimes.
    • Alternative assets are better, but not all of them are equal.
    • Hedge funds perform well in bear markets but heavily underperform in bull markets.

    Introduction

    The increased market volatility after the quiet summer demonstrates how risky markets can be. The market falling by 2.5% in a few days on practically no news except for an increased probability of a small increase in in interest rates and no additional stimulus in Europe is a sign of the market’s fragility. More →

  • 18 Sep
    Sunday Edition: Stock Dividends – IRS-Friendly Sacred Cow, or Value Analysis Tool?

    Sunday Edition: Stock Dividends – IRS-Friendly Sacred Cow, or Value Analysis Tool?

    In today’s Sunday Edition, Thomas Moore corrects three major fallacies which so many investors hold true when it comes to investing in dividend paying stocks.

    As Thomas illustrates, investors who succumb to these fallacies might only earn half the return that other more informed value investors might generate. More →

  • 16 Sep
    Want To Retire Comfortably? Do You Have $2,000,000?

    Want To Retire Comfortably? Do You Have $2,000,000?

    • The low yields we have now increase the amount necessary for a comfy retirement nest egg.
    • $500,000 is only estimated to last for a 13 year retirement. Most retirees will completely miss the mark.
    • Avoid risky assets no matter how tempting might the yield be.

    Introduction

    Last week we discussed the true cost of low interest rates with particular attention paid to pension funding. Many defined pension plans are underfunded, and it’s a situation that has to be dealt with now despite it being against human nature to think about a problem that will only arise in the distant future.

    On top of the problems in defined pension funds, low interest rates have a detrimental effect on general pensions and your retirement. More →

  • 15 Sep
    Troubled Waters Ahead For Developed Markets. Look Here For Returns.

    Troubled Waters Ahead For Developed Markets. Look Here For Returns.

    • Europe and Germany aren’t the best places for international diversification right now.
    • The U.S. is looking a bit better, but you’ll find the best opportunities are mostly in emerging markets.
    • Look for companies that are relatively cheap and that have exposure to China, India, and/or Brazil.

    Introduction

    Two days ago we discussed what is going on in the markets in relation to monetary policies. Today we will discuss what is going on in global economics.

    As the market is showing a high level of volatility, basic economic fundamentals is where we should look to get answers on what to do. By analyzing the latest global economic indicators, we can better determine the risk of a recession in the U.S. and Europe or a slowdown in China, all of which could contribute to a decline in global markets. More →

  • 14 Sep
    Diversify Like The Big Boys Do

    Diversify Like The Big Boys Do

    • Temporal diversification diversifies your portfolio through time by buying only the assets that are cheap at the moment and avoiding the ones in a bubble.
    • By buying in cycle troughs you enjoy high-dividend yields that allow you to buy other assets that are in temporal distress.
    • This high yield lowers the need to sell and lowers your tax bill.

    Introduction

    Today we’ll introduce you to a new concept—“temporal diversification,” a term that has begun to gain traction, especially in academic circles—that isn’t yet common knowledge but is already being used by the best investors. Using the example of Berkshire Hathaway, we’ll provide an overview of the concept of temporal diversification and will provide some ideas for increasing your returns by diversifying your portfolio not just for the current moment, but for your whole investing life. More →

  • 13 Sep
    What To Expect From The Markets Now

    What To Expect From The Markets Now

    • The German bond’s 3% loss on a 12 basis point yield move shows how risky bonds are right now.
    • The value of the S&P 500 should be around 1,600 but could go lower with bad economic news.
    • Bonds and stocks seem very risky as they both have low yields and large downsides.

    Introduction

    Last Friday was a pretty scary day in the financial markets. The S&P 500 lost 2.45% and bonds also lost ground due to higher yields.

    Stocks and bonds are correlated and don’t provide quality diversification. We have been warning about the risks inherent to bond investing for a while with warnings that the low yields mean high risk and low returns. More →

  • 12 Sep
    Is Cash An Opportunity Cost, Or An Opportunity?

    Is Cash An Opportunity Cost, Or An Opportunity?

    • Holding cash may be considered an opportunity cost, but its also a call option with no expiration date.
    • The yield you can expect from bonds is 1.5% and the yield from stocks is 2% or 4% when earnings are included.
    • Holding cash will give you the liquidity to load up the truck when opportunities come knocking.

    Introduction

    We’re often taught that action is the way to solve all issues; the more you work the more you have, and as good economists, we have to use all available resources. But that isn’t always the best way to approach investing because all that action may sometimes be just like rowing toward a cliff.

    The other option is to do nothing,—or even better, to do something completely separate from investing, like playing with your kids, traveling, etc.—and sticking to cash with a significant part of your portfolio for a while. More →

    By Sven Carlin Bonds Cash Investiv Daily Stocks
  • 11 Sep
    Sunday Edition: Identifying Undervalued Stocks

    Sunday Edition: Identifying Undervalued Stocks

    The $64 million dollar question asked by every investor is, “when is the right time to make an investment and actually buy shares in the said company?”

    One of the big advantages of value investing is the fact that the question of when you should invest, while never being irrelevant, is only a secondary concern. 

    The focus is on first determining whether a stock is available at a discount compared to how much the business is worth; if a discount exists, the value investor has an immediate advantage over the rest of the market (which has yet to recognize the stock should be priced higher than it is) and should take a position as quickly as possible. More →

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