Introduction
After yesterday, many are expecting a stock market crash. And by looking at what happened in 2000 and 2009, it seems pretty logical that the market will crash as things are looking ridiculous. More →
Introduction
Many were expecting an even stronger dollar going into 2018 as the U.S. economy is doing well and the FED is expected to raise rates three times in this year, if not more. However, the dollar significantly weakened in 2017. More →
If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from my research on financial markets, it’s that you always have to expect the unexpected. Nothing is linear, everything works in cycles and what monetary policy makers say is usually wrong.
Last week when the FED raised interest rates, Janet Yellen said: “We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.”
That might be true, but the fact is that every economy today is a global economy and the global economy isn’t synchronized. At some point, it will crack somewhere as it always does. The important thing for us is to be prepared for something like that and to see how to best position our portfolios for the consequences that a financial shock might create. More →
Introduction
To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →
Introduction
There is one little bell always ringing in my mind: inflation, inflation, inflation.
From all my analysis, inflation is something that could really shock the financial world. In today’s article, I’ll first show the current inflation levels for the most important economies, and then will dig deeper into what can happen in the next few years and how could that affect your portfolio. More →
Introduction
In today’s article, I’ll analyze the current global debt environment.
Debt is an economic factor that is unwatched as long as things are going well but as soon at things turn south, everyone will be screaming about a debt crisis and the end of the financial world as we know it.
Given this, it’s extremely important to know what is going on, how sustainable the current debt levels are, what the impact of debt on the economy is, how to position your portfolio, and perhaps even how to take advantage of potential black swans arising from future debt instabilities. More →
Introduction
The general expectation is that the FED will start selling securities in order to tighten monetary policy, that the ECB will slowly stop buying, and that nothing will change in Japan. Nevertheless, such a situation would lead to an environment where the additional liquidity created by central banks finally dries up. As the liquidity provided by central banks is the main reason behind this bull market, should investors begin to cut their positions?
In order to elaborate on this question, we’ll first analyze the situation, the expected situation, and then possible scenarios in order to give you the best answer on how to prepare yourself for what might happen. It’s extremely important to do so and, as you will see, it isn’t that difficult. More →
Introduction
All we see right now is the stock market continuing to go up. The S&P 500 is already up 9.7% year to date, and there is no sign that the trend might weaken or reverse. Over the last 8 and a half years, the index is up 242%. More →
Introduction
In the last 10 years, the financial environment has changed significantly. You might not see it in your everyday life, but the 2007 environment and the environment today are hugely different. The wealth effect hasn’t really worked as Central Banks had planned and has significantly skewed asset values compared to fundamentals.
In today’s article, I’ll describe what happened, compare it to what the previous situation was, show who benefited from the significant monetary policy market intrusions, and who will keep benefiting in the future to find ways to take advantage of the situation. More →
Introduction
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”
– Mark Twain
When Albert Einstein was teaching at Oxford University, he gave his senior physics students exactly the same exam he had given them the year before. His assistant was disturbed by such a mistake, but before intervening he asked Einstein whether he actually made a mistake. Einstein replied that the exam was exactly the same. The assistant was even more concerned and asked why he would do such a thing. Einstein replied, “Well, the questions are still the same, but the answers have changed.” More →
