Bank of Japan

18 May
Financial Markets Are Rigged & The Whole Economy Is Fake
Low interest rates have created a unique situation.

Economies are fake because you don’t know what’s real value or smoke.

What you should do might surprise you as to play along isn’t such a bad idea.

Introduction

Something that’s easy to forget is that the current financial environment is rigged and not many discuss this because it’s done in a legal way.

In today’s article, I want to quickly explain what has been going on in the financial environment over the last decade and how natural market forces are distorted in order to increase asset prices and enable the economy we live in to continue as it has for at least a while longer. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Central Banks ECB FED Interest Rates Investiv Daily
23 Apr
This Market Is Getting Crazy – Here’s How Buffett Says To Invest In It
We’ll discuss some news first, including commodity prices, chip guidance, and covenant ratios.

Then we’ll put things into perspective and see what an investor can do in this market.

I’ll give you a few tools that will make investing easy for you, if you can handle them.

Introduction

Last week, the stock market was positive for half of the week and then negative for the remainder. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Cash ECB FED Inflation Interest Rates Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession US Economy Warren Buffett
06 Feb
This Is What Could Keep The Stock Market From Crashing
There are scenarios that could see stocks double from current levels, no matter how crazy those scenarios might look now.

I’ll explain what’s going on, why, and what can you do about it.

No one can know exactly what will happen, so the key is to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

After yesterday, many are expecting a stock market crash. And by looking at what happened in 2000 and 2009, it seems pretty logical that the market will crash as things are looking ridiculous. More →
By Sven Carlin All-Weather Portfolio Bank of Japan Central Banks ECB FED Inflation Investing Strategy Investiv Daily
22 Jan
The Weak Dollar & Your Portfolio
It’s important to differentiate between short term currency speculation and economic trends.

The main global currencies don’t show long term strength.

You can rebalance globally, but also protect yourself by owning assets.

Introduction

Many were expecting an even stronger dollar going into 2018 as the U.S. economy is doing well and the FED is expected to raise rates three times in this year, if not more. However, the dollar significantly weakened in 2017. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Dollar ECB Investing Strategy Investiv Daily
18 Dec

There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from my research on financial markets, it’s that you always have to expect the unexpected. Nothing is linear, everything works in cycles and what monetary policy makers say is usually wrong.

Last week when the FED raised interest rates, Janet Yellen said: “We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.”

That might be true, but the fact is that every economy today is a global economy and the global economy isn’t synchronized. At some point, it will crack somewhere as it always does. The important thing for us is to be prepared for something like that and to see how to best position our portfolios for the consequences that a financial shock might create. More →

By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Central Banks Emerging Markets European Union FED Global Risks Great Britain Interest Rates International Diversification Investiv Daily
23 Nov
The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It
All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?

I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.

As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Black Swan Events Central Banks Commodities Debt European Union FED Global Risks Inflation Investiv Daily Leverage Market Forecast Recession US Economy Valuations
13 Nov
Inflation Points To A Recession On The Horizon – Here’s What You Need To Know
Everybody expected high inflation after 2009, but it didn’t happen. There are specific reasons for that.

However, higher food and energy prices are pushing inflation higher. The low unemployment rate should help too.

Today, I’ll discuss how to best position yourself for an inflationary environment.

Introduction

There is one little bell always ringing in my mind: inflation, inflation, inflation.

From all my analysis, inflation is something that could really shock the financial world. In today’s article, I’ll first show the current inflation levels for the most important economies, and then will dig deeper into what can happen in the next few years and how could that affect your portfolio. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Central Banks ECB FED Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast
11 Sep
Out Of This World Debt Levels Will Damn Future Generations
Debt levels are the key driver of economic growth in developed countries. So keep an eye on debt.

The velocity of money, household debt, car loans and sales aren’t telling a good story.

Globally, the situation isn’t much better. However, there are a few exceptions.

Introduction

In today’s article, I’ll analyze the current global debt environment.

Debt is an economic factor that is unwatched as long as things are going well but as soon at things turn south, everyone will be screaming about a debt crisis and the end of the financial world as we know it.

Given this, it’s extremely important to know what is going on, how sustainable the current debt levels are, what the impact of debt on the economy is, how to position your portfolio, and perhaps even how to take advantage of potential black swans arising from future debt instabilities. More →
By Sven Carlin Auto Industry Bank of Japan Central Banks China Debt Emerging Markets European Union FED Financial Engineering Global Risks Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Monetary Easing Recession US Economy
16 Aug
Why You Need To Prepare For All Hell To Break Loose
The last stock bull market was influenced by central bank activity, that’s clear. What’s next is the question.

I’ll describe three potential scenarios that could impact our financial system.

One is good, the second is interesting, while the third is ugly.

Introduction

The general expectation is that the FED will start selling securities in order to tighten monetary policy, that the ECB will slowly stop buying, and that nothing will change in Japan. Nevertheless, such a situation would lead to an environment where the additional liquidity created by central banks finally dries up. As the liquidity provided by central banks is the main reason behind this bull market, should investors begin to cut their positions?

In order to elaborate on this question, we’ll first analyze the situation, the expected situation, and then possible scenarios in order to give you the best answer on how to prepare yourself for what might happen. It’s extremely important to do so and, as you will see, it isn’t that difficult. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Bull Market Central Banks Credit Cycle ECB FED Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Stocks US Economy
08 Aug
Are Stocks & Bonds In A Bubble? Sven Thinks So…
Earnings have been growing in the last 12 months, but haven’t grown that much over the last 20 years.

Even the Swiss central bank owns almost $3 billion worth of Apple’s stock.

After the dot-com and the housing bubbles, school books will talk about the central bank bubble in the future.

Introduction

All we see right now is the stock market continuing to go up. The S&P 500 is already up 9.7% year to date, and there is no sign that the trend might weaken or reverse. Over the last 8 and a half years, the index is up 242%. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Banks Central Banks Corporate Earnings ECB FED Financial Engineering Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily