Global Growth Stocks

23 Feb
Bubble, Crisis, Bubble, Crisis – Debunking The Chinese Real Estate Sector
The Chinese government is controlling the real estate market and allowing short, two-year boom bust cycles.

Western investors don’t understand China and see either a bubble or a crash.

The best way to invest is to seize the wild market swings created by such erratic behavior.

Introduction

The question we would all like to know the answer to is this: is the Chinese real estate market in a bubble?

If it is, any kind of burst would create a credit crisis, lower economic growth, and quickly spill over first on global financial markets, and consequently onto the global economy.

There is no consensus on whether or not Chinese real estate is in a bubble. I’m going to describe both perspectives to give you the best information possible for China and Chinese real estate related investments. More →
By Sven Carlin China Debt Emerging Markets Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Real Estate
22 Feb
What Will The Economic World Look Like In 2050?
Emerging markets will be the economic leaders of the world.

Investment returns are related to economic performance, so it’s wise to be internationally diversified.

However, diversifying just to diversify is the biggest mistake you can make as emerging markets are full of risk.

Introduction

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) just released its report on what the economic world will look like in 2050. You might wonder what that has do to with your investment returns as 2050 is 33 years from now, but it has everything to do with your returns if your investment horizon is longer than a few years because these global trends that will shape the world up to 2050 will also be the trends that will shape your portfolio returns. More →
By Sven Carlin Credit Cycle Emerging Markets Global Growth Stocks International Diversification Investiv Daily
21 Feb
Buffett Put $12 Billion On Stocks, But He Didn’t Buy Into This Market
Stocks grew on positive sentiment after Buffett disclosed his optimism and spent $12 billion.

His purchases included Apple, and an extremely cheap sector.

Passive investing without thinking is what allows for such heterogeneity in valuations. For investors like Buffett, it’s easy money.

Introduction

At the end of January, market bulls rejoiced when Warren Buffet disclosed in a Charlie Rose interview that he had bought $12 billion of stocks since Trump’s election. Since then, the market has jumped another 3% on positive sentiment as even the greatest low risk investors of them all is buying into this market.

A few days ago, however, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed—in their obligatory holding statement—what Buffett actually bought. This, of course, hasn’t been as publicized as has the fact that he bought $12 billion of stocks, but as always, journalists prefer to focus more on what’s sexy than on what’s important.

Let’s see if we can learn something from what the Oracle of Omaha has been buying in this market which is constantly breaching all-time highs. More →
By Sven Carlin Berkshire Hathaway Diversification Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Temporal Diversification Warren Buffett
19 Feb

Sunday Edition: Copper May Be The Strongest New Bull Market Over The Coming Decade

The Escondida mine problems are only the tip of the iceberg for Copper, which appears to be in a bit of a panic since workers of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida copper mine in Chile started an indefinite strike on February 9, forcing a force majeure declaration on its shipments.

Adding more fuel to the fire is a one-month delay to exports at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine when Freeport-McMoRan suspended copper concentrate output while in negotiations with the government over the terms of its mining permit which has expired. More →

By Shane Rawlings Commodities Copper Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Sunday Edition
17 Feb
Sven Is Still Bullish On Copper And You Should Be Too
Copper bottomed in 2016 and the outlook remains bullish in the long term.

The short term could also offer positives due to strikes and political issues.

The long term balance for copper should be above $3.5 per pound and that price will be increasing due to lower copper ore grades and higher mining costs.

Introduction

The last time I wrote exclusively on copper was in April 2016. The bullish article is available here. Since then, copper prices have increased 22%, from $2.22 per pound to the current $2.73. As the dollar has also strengthened by 7% since then, we should add 7% to the current copper price to show the real appreciation in copper. Thus, copper would be at $2.92 in real terms. More →
By Sven Carlin Commodities Copper Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily
12 Feb

Sunday Edition: Clues From The Ticker Tape – Do These Charts Spell Big Trouble Ahead?

On February 1, 2017, the share price of Automatic Data Processing Inc. – ticker ADP gapped lower intraday by -6.8% on heavier than normal volume.

In technical analysis, often times a long running trend, whether up or down, will begin its reversal with what is known as a “breakaway gap”. More →

By Shane Rawlings Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Recession Sunday Edition
10 Feb
How A Hedge Fund Manager Researches A Stock
Researching stocks is simple: you have to leave no stone (stock) unturned, meticulously assess risks, calculate present values of future cash flows, compare the stock price, and if your estimated value is much higher, assess how much of your portfolio to put into a stock.

Unfortunately, this is more than a full-time job. You have to love it and more than a decade of experience helps. For those that don’t have the time, we’ll provide a solution.

This article also includes a detailed example of an investigation on a stock that didn’t turn out as an investment. Usually, only one of 20 thoroughly researched stocks turn out as a potential investment. In the end, it boils down to the fact that only 1 out of more than a 1,000 researched stocks is a good investment.

Introduction

I was a spear fisher for many years. It was my passion, and I went fishing more than 150 times per year. You can watch a video of what I was doing here.

If you are or know fellow fishermen, you know that we live for the big catch. However, catching the fish of the year takes thousands of hours gaining experience, patient searching for the best spot and the best time, and analyzing many variables that can increase your odds at catching the big one with billions of small fish swimming around.

After a few years of diving, I learned that it all boils down to pure statistics. The more time I spent at sea, dives I made, and the more times I came home empty handed, the higher the probability became for a big catch. More →
By Sven Carlin Commodities Global Growth Stocks Gold Investing Strategy Investiv Daily
05 Feb

Sunday Edition: Bonds Are The World’s Most Important Financial Market – Where Are They Headed Next?

Source: Bloomberg.

A few months back I wrote about how I believed the July high of 177’11 in the 30-year bond would ultimately mark the long-term top and beginning of a new bear market.

I still believe that high will hold and be referenced by future generations as the top to one of the longest bond bull markets in history. More →

By Shane Rawlings Bonds Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Sunday Edition
29 Jan

Sunday Edition: The Mighty Dollar

Several weeks ago, I wrote about how I believe it’s possible to time financial markets with a high degree of accuracy.

In today’s article, I want to discuss the US dollar and why I believe it is nearing a long-term top (sometime in the next 6 to 18 months), and how you can use this trend change to make a small fortune. More →

By Shane Rawlings Dollar Emerging Markets Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Sunday Edition