Inflation

  • 13 Apr
    What The Last 100 Years Can Tell Us About Our Long Term Returns

    What The Last 100 Years Can Tell Us About Our Long Term Returns

    At the beginning of this century, London Business School professors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Stauton wrote a seminal book on stock market investing titled Triumph of the Optimists where he described what has happened over the past 100 years.

    Today, we’re going to go through his findings and through his updated findings that he publishes annually for Credit Suisse in order to see what we can expect from long term investing returns.



    We all think the stock market is the best and only thing one should invest in, but is it really and were the last 100 years just the triumph of the optimists? Let’s find out. More →

  • 28 Mar
    Why You Need To Be Thinking About Inflation Hedges Right Now

    Why You Need To Be Thinking About Inflation Hedges Right Now

    We have to ask ourselves what’s going on in the world today, and the answer is pretty simple. Central banks have pushed so much liquidity into the system that everything looks great since technology plus huge investments thanks to low borrowing costs has kept prices down.



    More →

  • 06 Mar
    Tariffs & Interest Rate Hikes – Does This Mean Doom & Gloom For Stocks?

    Tariffs & Interest Rate Hikes – Does This Mean Doom & Gloom For Stocks?

    • Last week was an eventful week for stocks. Today, we’ll discuss the long term impact of what has been going on.



    Introduction

    So last week was another down week for the S&P 500 and from what’s going on, it looks like it’s something we should get accustomed to. More →

  • 05 Mar
    Stocks Are Crazy Risky Now – We’ll Reveal The Perfect Hedge

    Stocks Are Crazy Risky Now – We’ll Reveal The Perfect Hedge

    There’s some volatility in the markets that we haven’t seen for a long time.

    The increased volatility is a sign of nervousness and the market is looking for direction.

    No one knows where things will go in the short term as that’s impossible to know. Even Warren Buffett never fails to mention how he has absolutely no idea about where markets will go in the short to medium term.

    If we look at things from a macro perspective, the economy is at its limits and we’ve seen the actual GDP finally reach the potential GDP. More →

  • 26 Feb
    Let’s Talk Inflation & Interest Rates

    Let’s Talk Inflation & Interest Rates

    • The fight between interest rates and stock valuations has started.
    • The only smart thing to do now is to take a long-term perspective and estimate what financial markets will look like in two years. Few think that way.
    • Corporate profits in relation to GDP tell you what will happen in the long term.



    Introduction

    Last Wednesday, the FED released the minutes from its latest meeting. Soon after the minutes were published, the market went into reversal mode. More →

  • 20 Feb
    Here’s What You Need To Know About Inflation & Stocks

    Here’s What You Need To Know About Inflation & Stocks

    • There are three scenarios when it comes to stocks and inflation.
    • The only thing you can do is be prepared and avoid risky things.



    Introduction

    Last week’s key number to watch was inflation which surprised on the upside – higher inflation should lead to higher interest rates but the FED might let inflation run a bit in order not to hit the brakes too hard. However, the markets didn’t react, everybody was buying the dip as the salespeople—sorry big banks—came out with statements that it’s all fine. More →

  • 06 Feb
    This Is What Could Keep The Stock Market From Crashing

    This Is What Could Keep The Stock Market From Crashing

    • There are scenarios that could see stocks double from current levels, no matter how crazy those scenarios might look now.
    • I’ll explain what’s going on, why, and what can you do about it.
    • No one can know exactly what will happen, so the key is to be prepared for anything.



    Introduction

    After yesterday, many are expecting a stock market crash. And by looking at what happened in 2000 and 2009, it seems pretty logical that the market will crash as things are looking ridiculous. More →

  • 29 Jan
    At Davos, Dalio’s Message Tells You Everything You Need To Know

    At Davos, Dalio’s Message Tells You Everything You Need To Know

    • Dalio didn’t say that cash is trash or that it is stupid to hold cash.
    • I’ll explain in more detail what Dalio said.
    • Is the biggest risk nobody is seeing—with the exception of Dalio—political in nature?



    Introduction

    I love Davos because there is always a Bloomberg interview with beautiful mountain scenery and a freezing Ray Dalio.

    Perhaps because of the cold, Dalio always wants to keep the interview as short as possible and spits out all his thoughts on the economy, markets, etc. Some of it will be misinterpreted by the market, but the key message is always extremely important to hear. More →

  • 23 Jan
    Inflation Is A Lie – Here’s What You Need To Know

    Inflation Is A Lie – Here’s What You Need To Know

    • Inflation is different for each individual, and it’s probably higher than reported for the majority of us.
    • It isn’t in the interest of any government to have higher inflation as many payments would have to be adjusted, from pensions to salaries.
    • The key is that you have to invest by keeping the real and not the reported inflation in mind.



    Introduction

    What we’ve been looking at for the past 35 years is an environment with declining and low inflation. However, that’s because inflation is usually represented by only one number which is calculated in a distorted way and has to comprehend many various factors of which each impacts us differently. More →

    By Sven Carlin Inflation Investiv Daily
  • 16 Jan
    Higher Inflation Could Be A Game Changer

    Higher Inflation Could Be A Game Changer

    • Inflation has finally reached the FED’s target of 2%.
    • Employment and GDP levels indicate we are in the late part of the economic cycle.
    • Will the FED lose control over its monetary policy?



    Introduction

    Global economies are all finally doing very well, or at least just well. You can’t expect economic skeletons like Europe to do very well. Nevertheless, monetary policies across developed markets are still supportive.

    Supportive policies, from the ECB still buying bonds on the open market, to the BOJ buying ETFs, and the U.S. lowering taxes, indicate that all these economies would be very different without supportive policies. More →

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