Investing Strategy

  • 21 Jun
    Diversification vs. Concentration

    Diversification vs. Concentration

    • Index funds and diversification have worked extremely well in the past 35 years, however their success can be thanked to geography, as we hear only about the success in the U.S., and to declining interest rates.
    • If the S&P 500 had the same earnings yield as when the Vanguard fund gained traction, it would be at 557 points, yes 77% below current levels.
    • It’s better to wait in cash than buy a diversified index fund now.

    Introduction

    Some investment gurus advocate spreading your portfolio across various asset classes in order to limit your risks for the same return. On the other hand, others say diversification is for idiots and for those who don’t know what they’re doing. I’ll analyze their arguments and see what the best option is for you. More →

  • 14 Jun
    Step-By-Step Guide To Building An All-Weather Portfolio In Today’s Environment

    Step-By-Step Guide To Building An All-Weather Portfolio In Today’s Environment

    • I’ll explain what an all-weather portfolio is and why it’s important to think all-weather in this macro environment.
    • It’s important to understand the difference between portfolio asset class diversification and risk diversification.
    • I’ll use imaginary risk calculations to illustrate how to properly build an all-weather portfolio.

    Introduction

    History has taught us that we always have to expect the unexpected. For example, I don’t know whether the U.S. economy is going to continue to expand or whether interest rates will be lower or higher in the future. I can make estimations, account for probabilities, and then invest accordingly, but still, I have to be prepared for anything. More →

  • 13 Jun
    Margin Of Safety – Seth Klarman’s 10 Rules For Investing Success

    Margin Of Safety – Seth Klarman’s 10 Rules For Investing Success

    • After summarizing Seth Klarman’s book, I thought added value could be created by listing his most important investing rules.
    • Some rules are easy to understand and apply, while some go against what the majority thinks. Think averaging down.
    • Klarman achieved returns of over 20% for more than 35 years. Therefore, it’s extremely important to learn and listen when he says something as he doesn’t speak much.

    Introduction

    We have completed the chapter by chapter summary of Seth Klarman’s book, Margin of Safety. Click here to view all of these articles on the Investiv Daily website.

    As I find Klarman’s investment style so powerful and yet so simple, I thought it would be a good idea to conclude the summary of his book with 10 of his investment rules. You may want to bookmark today’s article to compare future investment ideas and opportunities against Klarman’s view on investing. More →

  • 12 Jun
    Stocks, Bonds, & Gold, Oh My! What’s The Safest Asset Class Today?

    Stocks, Bonds, & Gold, Oh My! What’s The Safest Asset Class Today?

    • In his search for safety, the average investor usually does it all wrong.
    • Stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, and cash will all probably drop more than 70% once in your lifetime.
    • However, there is an asset class that is much safer and will lead to huge returns, Buffett would call it a “bet on America.”

    Introduction

    When I talk to people that aren’t as obsessed about investments as I am, a word that I constantly hear is “safety.” Everybody wants to do something with their capital without risk and they are in a constant inner fight related to their money and what to do with it. More →

  • 08 Jun
    How To Invest For Your Children Or Grandchildren

    How To Invest For Your Children Or Grandchildren

    • Whether investing for children or retirement, the goal is to maximize portfolio value at a specific future date, not now or in the next six months.
    • Be wary of fees as they eat up a huge part of your future wealth. I’ll show how to avoid them.
    • Temporal diversification and buying companies that create value will do wonders over time.

    Introduction

    Our greatest treasure is, of course, our kids. I’m a proud father for six months now and I must say that every day since my child was born has been the most beautiful day of my life.

    In that spirit, I want to provide the best possible environment for my kid to grow up, but also to enable him to do everything he wants when he is older. This has me, and probably many other parents or grandparents, already thinking about college tuition money, start-up capital for a business venture, helping with the down payment for a house, or simply paying for a wedding or a honey-moon. The notion that you can build a substantial nest-egg with small monthly payments is very attractive to me and will also provide a great educational experience to my kid as it will show him how small actions over a long period of time can bring huge results. More →

  • 07 Jun
    Do You Have a Deterministic Or Probabilistic Approach To Investing?

    Do You Have a Deterministic Or Probabilistic Approach To Investing?

    Introduction

    The human mind is wired in a deterministic way. A proposition is either necessarily true or it is false.

    For example, you either like a person or you don’t. There isn’t an in-between where you would say that there is a 67% probability you like someone. The same principle applies to investing, we either think the market or a stock are going to go up or down. What very few can do is to think in a probabilistic way. But mastering a probabilistic way of thinking would do wonders for your portfolio.

    Today I’ll quickly analyze Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) as both a strong bullish and a strong bearish case can be made to explain the probabilistic and deterministic approach to investing. More →

  • 06 Jun
    The Truth No One Tells You: Low Risk = High Reward, High Risk = Low Reward

    The Truth No One Tells You: Low Risk = High Reward, High Risk = Low Reward

    • When you give fundamentals time, you really can reach high returns with low risk.
    • Look for earnings stability and earnings yield to calculate your future returns. The lower the price, the higher the earnings yield and the lower the risk.
    • If you’re happy with a 4% return in the next 30 years, the S&P 500 has almost no risk at all. If you want more, keep reading.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we discussed a bit how defensive investors should position themselves in today’s market. As promised, today I’ll debunk the idea that only high risk can lead to high returns. More →

  • 02 Jun
    Should You Follow What Hedge Fund Managers Are Doing?

    Should You Follow What Hedge Fund Managers Are Doing?

    • I’ll describe in detail how you can follow hedge fund managers.
    • It’s very important to understand the risk reward profile of the fund manager.
    • Following allows us to find great investment ideas, but there are also big traps.

    Introduction

    Every fund has to disclose its portfolio to the SEC quarterly in a 13F form which allows us to track hedge fund managers’ portfolios. It’s easy to track what George Soros, David Tepper, Seth Klarman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn, David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Warren Buffett, and many, many other interesting investment stars have been doing. The data is usually disclosed 45 days after the end of the quarter, but nevertheless shows what these guys have been doing.

    When you see the research power all those funds use, you might think it’s an excellent free lunch. Well, it could be, but there are a few things to be careful of. More →

  • 23 May
    Portfolio Management & Trading – The Value Investing Way

    Portfolio Management & Trading – The Value Investing Way

    • A value investor should trade when a better bargain present itself.
    • Liquidity is a key component of an investment and of a portfolio.
    • Klarman’s advice is to stay in touch with the market to find opportunities, average down, and hold ten to fifteen stocks max for proper diversification.

    Introduction

    We’ll continue with the analysis of Seth Klarman’s book Margin of Safety. Today we’ll discuss chapter 13, Portfolio Management and Trading. More →

  • 17 May
    Hunting For Bargains? Look For These Special Situations

    Hunting For Bargains? Look For These Special Situations

    • Apart from finding bargain investments, understanding the catalysts that will unlock value is even more important.
    • Complex securities, risk arbitrage, liquidations, and spinoffs are bargain hunting territory for the value investor.

    Introduction

    Today, we’ll look at Chapter 10 of Seth Klarman’s seminal work on value investing, Margin of Safety. Chapter 10 digs deeper into value investing and discusses complex situations.

    We would all love to just run a screen, find a few cheap stocks to buy, and then wait a year or two to enjoy triple digit returns. However, as the book value of the S&P 500 is just a third of its market value, value investors are in a difficult position and therefore are forced to look for bargains in all kinds of places, dig deeper, and comprehend complex situations.

    Unfortunately, if a value investment is simple to analyze, it’s also an obvious thing for other investors which limits the discount and potential returns. This leads value investors to do research into areas such as corporate liquidations, complex securities, risk arbitrage, and spinoffs. More →

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