Investing Strategy

  • 03 Mar
    Why An ETF Is The Wrong Way To Invest In Emerging Markets

    Why An ETF Is The Wrong Way To Invest In Emerging Markets

    • Irrational market sentiment and low liquidity create high volatility that can easily be seized by smart investors. Just do the opposite of what the crowd does.
    • Despite what the market might think in a certain moment, emerging markets and businesses grow alongside economic development and positive demographics.
    • ETFs are the crowd and due to their construction and rules, ETFs represent buying high and selling low, which is a terrible strategy anywhere but it’s extremely costly on volatile emerging markets.

    Introduction

    I have a positive bias towards emerging markets because of their positive demographics, growth aspirations, and low starting level from a macroeconomic perspective, and because, from a behavioral perspective, emerging markets are completely irrational, much less liquid, and highly volatile, especially individual stocks.

    You might wonder why I like volatility, low liquidity, and irrational behavior. Well, at the first sign of fear on financial markets, everybody rushes to sell their emerging market position. This, combined with low liquidity, creates huge volatility which is the best investing opportunity if you are a value/growth investor. More →

  • 01 Mar
    Value That’s Measured In Millions

    Value That’s Measured In Millions

    • My goal for what I write on Investiv Daily is to increase yearly returns by 4 percentage points for those who want to remain invested in the U.S. and diversified across sectors, by 8 percentage points for those who want the same but dare to go international, and by 12 or more percentage points for those who want to look at specific stock investments.
    • History, statistics, the Buffetts of the world, macroeconomics, cycles, etc., show that returns of above 16% on an annualized basis are possible, so why should you settle for average?
    • The current investing environment praises index or average investing. However, I would wait for a complete business and market cycle to pass before praising an investment strategy. It’s fun how quickly people have forgotten about 2001 and 2009.

    Introduction

    You probably know that I’ve been writing here on Investiv Daily for a while now. Apart from the content and commentary that I publish here, I have a very specific goal in mind. My goal is to eliminate the word “average” from your returns and without increasing your risk. More →

  • 27 Feb
    A Value Investment Philosophy

    A Value Investment Philosophy

    • If you want to succeed in investing for the long term, your focus has to be on potential losses, only later should you look at potential gains.
    • Risk can’t be determined from historical data, it only depends on the price paid.
    • Risk avoidance is compatible with investing success when the correct approach is used.

    Introduction

    Given the great response, I’ll continue with breaking down Seth Klarman’s legendary book Margin of Safety.

    You can read my introduction to Klarman’s Margin of Safety here, my review of chapter one, Where Most Investors Stumblehere, my review of chapter two, The Nature of Wall Street Works Against Investorshere, and The Institutional Performance Derby: The Client Is the Loser chapter, here.

    Today, we’ll focus on the second part of the book, A Value Investment Philosophy.  More →

  • 26 Feb
    Sunday Edition: Fear and Greed: The Gremlins That Guzzle Your Money

    Sunday Edition: Fear and Greed: The Gremlins That Guzzle Your Money

    No matter how experienced you are as an investor, or how much money you’re working with, I’m willing to bet you started out in about the same place I did: you decided to buy that first stock because something, or someone, convinced you it was a good idea. Maybe your were acting on a stock tip from a close friend, or you saw Jim Cramer talk about how much he liked a stock. Either way, I’m willing to bet that initial decision was driven more by your emotion than it was on your ability to analyze the market or evaluate the stock itself. More →

  • 20 Feb
    Sell Your ‘High Yield’ Immediately – Aggressive Traders Get Short

    Sell Your ‘High Yield’ Immediately – Aggressive Traders Get Short

    • Due to higher oil prices, ‘high yield’ bond yields are approaching historical lows while interest rates and inflation are increasing. Investors should be grateful for the amazing opportunity to unload.
    • ‘High yield’ ETFs have grown from 0% to 10% of the total fixed income ETF market in less than 10 years.
    • Apart from rising interest rates, illiquid ‘high yield’ primary markets in relation to the highly liquid secondary ETF markets signal potential Armageddon as there will be no buyers when the ETF trend reverses.

    Introduction

    I usually look for investments where the risk is low and return is high as asymmetric risk reward situations provide the highest and safest returns. Today I’m going to do the opposite, discuss a high risk low reward investment. If you own or are attracted to higher yields, or want a short play, this article is for you. More →

  • 13 Feb
    Sometimes You Shouldn’t Be Like Buffett – Cashing Out Debunked

    Sometimes You Shouldn’t Be Like Buffett – Cashing Out Debunked

    • Don’t look at your portfolio as security for rainy days.
    • Don’t ask the market whether you should cash out, look at your goals and at the companies you own.
    • Standard investment advice has it all wrong.

    Introduction

    99.9% of all content related to investing is focused on returns and how much money can be made. However, what’s equally important, or even more important, is to align your investing returns with your personal life goals.

    I don’t want to be like Buffett and die the richest person in the world. I assume most of you feel the same way. Unfortunately, this creates constant internal or spouse-related battles between investing and spending, greed and fear, security and excitement, which leads to an important question, when and how should you cash out?

    Today, we’ll discuss a few concepts that can help you make investing, cashing out, and spending decisions. More →

  • 10 Feb
    How A Hedge Fund Manager Researches A Stock

    How A Hedge Fund Manager Researches A Stock

    • Researching stocks is simple: you have to leave no stone (stock) unturned, meticulously assess risks, calculate present values of future cash flows, compare the stock price, and if your estimated value is much higher, assess how much of your portfolio to put into a stock.
    • Unfortunately, this is more than a full-time job. You have to love it and more than a decade of experience helps. For those that don’t have the time, we’ll provide a solution.
    • This article also includes a detailed example of an investigation on a stock that didn’t turn out as an investment. Usually, only one of 20 thoroughly researched stocks turn out as a potential investment. In the end, it boils down to the fact that only 1 out of more than a 1,000 researched stocks is a good investment.

    Introduction

    I was a spear fisher for many years. It was my passion, and I went fishing more than 150 times per year. You can watch a video of what I was doing here.

    If you are or know fellow fishermen, you know that we live for the big catch. However, catching the fish of the year takes thousands of hours gaining experience, patient searching for the best spot and the best time, and analyzing many variables that can increase your odds at catching the big one with billions of small fish swimming around.

    After a few years of diving, I learned that it all boils down to pure statistics. The more time I spent at sea, dives I made, and the more times I came home empty handed, the higher the probability became for a big catch. More →

  • 07 Feb
    The Nature of Wall Street Works Against Investors

    The Nature of Wall Street Works Against Investors

    • Being detailed about your investments and knowing where the interest of your financial intermediary lies is essential for your financial well being.
    • Fees, underwriting commissions, investment fads, and Wall Street’s short term focus cost investors more than 1% a year.
    • On a $100,000 initial portfolio, a 2% yearly difference in returns after 30 years adds up to $738,675.

    Introduction

    The bold statement The Nature of Wall Street Works Against Investors is the title of the second chapter of Seth Klarman’s book Margin of Safety – Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor.

    As the book is an essential read for every investor but very difficult to come by and expensive to get, I am summarizing it for you alongside adding updated commentary in relation to the current market situation. More →

  • 01 Feb
    There’s Trouble Ahead For The S&P 500

    There’s Trouble Ahead For The S&P 500

    • Analyzing the S&P 500 through Klarman’s principles signals trouble ahead as the market is highly speculative, diverges from fundamentals, and is at a high level because yields are low.
    • Further, future earnings estimations that keep the market high are extremely optimistic.
    • An analysis of Klarman’s portfolio shows that it’s still possible to find value in the markets, and to lower risks and increase returns by having a margin of safety.

    Introduction

    Yesterday, we reviewed Chapter 1 of Seth Klarman’s book Margin of Safety – Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor.

    Today, we’re going to analyze the current market according to the investing principles described in yesterday’s article. More →

  • 31 Jan
    Where Most Investors Stumble

    Where Most Investors Stumble

    • Are you a speculator or an investor? Speculators usually don’t survive more than one economic cycle while investors reach decent returns.
    • It’s of extreme importance to distinguish whether an asset is an investment or a speculation.
    • We’ll list 11 characteristics of successful investors, and 13 characteristics of unsuccessful investors.

    Introduction

    Last week, we discussed Seth Klarman’s performance and approach to investing.

    Today, we’re going to dig into his book Margin of Safety – Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor. As it’s a very rare and expensive book full of extremely valuable insights, I believe our readers will find huge value in this series of articles. More →

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