- An analysis of employment, interest rates, currency, and inflation suggests a recession is inevitable in the next few years.
- The FED can’t change economic laws nor protect us from ourselves. On the contrary, the FED will lead us into a recession in order to prevent a future depression.
The FED didn’t raise rates last Wednesday but they are still on track to raise rates two to three times in 2017. The FED’s goal is to “foster maximum employment and price stability” through economic activity expanding at a moderate pace and inflation rising to, and stabilizing at 2%.
What we know is that inflation has been slowly rising and will reach 2% relatively soon. The labor market is strong and yields have been increasing in the expectation of higher interest rates.
A concept that always eludes economists, consequently also members of the FED, is stability. By looking at a model, an economist is trained to think that the economy can be controlled. But history shows that a stable scenario is never the case. In today’s article, I’ll forecast what lies ahead of us by looking at how the last two economic cycles developed. More →