Market Forecast

  • 11 Nov
    Forget About The Election Noise, Let’s Talk About China

    Forget About The Election Noise, Let’s Talk About China

    • China’s long term outlook is very positive and its debt is not worrying.
    • However, due to the nature of economic cycles, we have to expect and prepare for potential trouble coming from China.
    • When trouble will happen is anybody’s guess as many have called negative scenarios several times, but those have so far failed to materialize.

    Where China Is Now & Where It Is Going

    China is the growth motor of the global economy. It consumes about half of the global produced copper and produces half of the global steel output. This is due to the incredible GDP growth China has achieved in the last 25 years, which has averaged 9% per year. More →

  • 04 Nov
    This Metal Offers The Best Risk Reward Potential… And Has A Minimum 50% Upside Potential.

    This Metal Offers The Best Risk Reward Potential… And Has A Minimum 50% Upside Potential.

    • Copper consumption in relation to GDP per capita is essential for understanding the future demand for the metal.
    • At higher than $1.5 per pound, the copper cost curve becomes very steep indicating a sharp boom in copper prices when deficits eventually arise.
    • The five-year investment perspective necessary for copper seems long, but returns of 1,000% are on the table.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we discussed iron ore, aluminum, platinum and zinc. Today we will focus in on copper.

    Copper prices haven’t moved much since the beginning of this year, trading in a range between $2 and $2.2 per ounce. More →

  • 01 Nov
    GDP Is Up But Stocks Are Down – How You Should Respond

    GDP Is Up But Stocks Are Down – How You Should Respond

    • Inflation is approaching 2% as the current dollar GDP has increased to 4.4%.
    • Both inflation and GDP growth will force the FED to take action – the selloff in yielding assets will continue.
    • Nondurables consumption leads to GDP growth alongside exports and inventories buildups questioning GDP growth sustainability.

    Introduction

    Last Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the GDP data for Q3 2016. At first, it looked surprisingly good with the GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.9% for the quarter. This is excellent news as it takes the economy out of its anemic growth rhythm seen in the last two years. More →

  • 17 Oct
    Why A Market Crash Could Be Just Around The Corner

    Why A Market Crash Could Be Just Around The Corner

    • We’ll discuss some risks first and then discuss potential rewards.
    • Valuations are the tipping point toward a riskier perspective.
    • After reading this article you’ll be able to decide for yourself what the best strategy is for you to follow.

    Introduction

    In order to see where the market is going, let us first take a look at what the market has been doing in the last two years.

    The market has had a 7% yearly return if we look at it from October 15, 2014, however, if we wait a month, the yearly return for the last two years will fall to 1.8% per year. 1.8% a year plus a dividend yield of 2% isn’t bad in the current low yield environment, but it is bad when compared to the risks stock investors are running. More →

  • 04 Oct
    Market Clues From The Short Term Credit Cycle

    Market Clues From The Short Term Credit Cycle

    • Comparing the current credit cycle with the last two may tell us exactly how close we are to a recession.
    • As productivity growth is slowing down, credit is the only thing keeping the economy up.

    Introduction 

    How often do you think of what happened during the Great Recession?

    Exactly 9 years ago, the S&P 500 was around 1500 points and everything seemed fine, and headlines looked like this: More →

  • 28 Sep
    Earnings Season Is Approaching. Are You Ready?

    Earnings Season Is Approaching. Are You Ready?

    • Earnings will decline for the sixth consecutive quarter.
    • We question the 2017 forecasted earnings growth based purely on higher oil prices.
    • We’ll take a look at what can be done to limit your risks and increase returns.

    Introduction

    What we know is that for the last 5 quarters, the S&P 500 has had declining earnings. The situation doesn’t seem to change course for the next quarter, but most analysts expect earnings growth to come in 2017 as a result of a rebound in energy prices.

    As our readers know, this rebound should have already happened six months ago according to the same analysts’ expectations. In this article we’ll tell their story, but we’ll also analyze what else is out there that can influence future earnings. More →

  • 26 Sep
    An EV Future: Investing Dos & Don’ts – Specific Investment Opportunity Disclosed

    An EV Future: Investing Dos & Don’ts – Specific Investment Opportunity Disclosed

    • We won’t mention Tesla (except for right here).
    • Margins are essential for profitable long term investments.
    • Alternative related investments seem like the best option for low risk, high reward pre-hype investing opportunities in the electric market, the opposite is true for oil.

    Introduction

    The rumor is that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is searching for a partner to develop a car that many believe will be all-electric. This would be only one additional player in the long line of automotive manufacturers that have embraced the electric trend.

    In this article, we will look at how big the electric trend really is and what the investing opportunities and risks related to the new trend are. More →

  • 21 Sep
    Heavy Machinery & Auto Stocks – Is Now The Time To Buy?

    Heavy Machinery & Auto Stocks – Is Now The Time To Buy?

    • Heavy equipment seems to be in the midsts of a supply glut where the risks outweigh the rewards.
    • Emerging markets are the key for car manufacturers, and positioning for growth there is essential.
    • Car manufacturers offer the possibility for long term outperformance by proper due diligence and geographic growth analysis.

    Introduction

    Heavy equipment, machinery and automotive manufacturing are important parts of the economy, but the sector is a cyclical one. In periods of economic growth, the majority of people buy new cars, and new infrastructure and homes are built, which increases the demand for machinery. However, this demand only lasts up to a point after which people have already purchased their new car—and aren’t likely to replace it for 7 years—and there is an abundance of machinery available as machinery is typically made to last for more than 20 years. More →

  • 01 Sep
    Want To Make Money On Your Morning Cup of Coffee?

    Want To Make Money On Your Morning Cup of Coffee?

    • Demand for coffee is always increasing while supply is unstable and facing structural climate issues.
    • Investing opportunities include coffeehouse chains and direct investments in coffee through ETNs.
    • As you have to give your kid $3.65 for a Grande Caffé Latte at Starbucks, you might as well make some money on it.

    Introduction

    Most of us drink coffee on a daily basis, but how often do you think about investing in those same cups of coffee? This article is going to analyze global coffee trends, investing opportunities and risks related to coffee.

    Maybe it won’t be just your daily indulgence anymore, but something that will enable you to enjoy more of it in an early retirement. Legendary investor Peter Lynch always said to invest in what you know, and coffee is something a lot of us know. More →

  • 30 Aug
    Is There A Second Chance For 3D Printing?

    Is There A Second Chance For 3D Printing?

    • 3D printing stocks are back to the pre-3D printing stock boom.
    • The future of 3D printing looks too good to be true.
    • Microsoft is an example of how it is also a good idea to wait and invest only when the trend is really confirmed.

    Introduction

    3D printing isn’t currently in fashion in the investing world, but it serves as a perfect example of how investors’ excitement about uncertain future prospects can fuel an incredible stock boom that quickly fades as fundamentals don’t support the excitement. More →

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