Market Forecast

  • 02 Aug
    Euphoria & Denial Point to the Last Days of the Bull Market

    Euphoria & Denial Point to the Last Days of the Bull Market

    • Risks are cumulating and getting bigger.
    • U.S. GDP growth is slower than expected, earnings and oil prices continue to decline.
    • Japan is unable to grow while BREXIT risks are still unfolding.

    Introduction

    It is difficult to find good news lately. The last really good news was the June jobs report when 287,000 jobs were added. Since then, most of the news seems dismal, however, it has yet to have a negative impact on financial markets. It’s as though investors are just hoping for something good to happen in the future. As hopes are an immaterial human feeling, they should not be the base for investment decisions. More →

  • 27 Jul
    Will A Bet On Commodities Pay Now?

    Will A Bet On Commodities Pay Now?

    • Iron ore prices are falling as supply continues to grow, while copper and zinc prices show signs of supply gaps forming.
    • Low exploration and discoveries indicate that metals will be winners again in the future.
    • The possibility of future inflation increases the appeal of commodities.

    Introduction

    Diversification is the ultimate protection against various economic factors, in recessions you might want to hold gold or treasuries, in inflationary times you want to be long stocks and commodities. Therefore it is very important to always know what is happening in each potential diversification sector. More →

  • 22 Jul
    Have Recent Market & Currency Gains In Brazil Just Increased The Risks?

    Have Recent Market & Currency Gains In Brazil Just Increased The Risks?

    • Brazil’s economy contraction is slowing and the trend is turning positive.
    • The political situation is currently stable but trouble is always around the corner.
    • Fundamentals show potential but also risks as the price to book value is relatively high at 1.4.

    Introduction

    In April we wrote about Brazil and described it as a good risk reward opportunity as all the bad things had already happened. Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff had just been impeached, the economy had declined by more than 5% and Brazil’s currency was at historical lows against the dollar. More →

  • 19 Jul
    This Commodity May Have Reached Its Bottom. Find Out What It Is In Today’s Article.

    This Commodity May Have Reached Its Bottom. Find Out What It Is In Today’s Article.

    • Fertilizer prices have been declining alongside food prices, but food prices are picking up.
    • Fundamentals give downside protection with some risk coming from short term earnings.
    • The long term outlook is positive with balanced markets and demand growth.

    Introduction

    In agriculture and horticulture, potash is the common term for nutrient forms of the element potassium (K). It is used globally for increasing agricultural yields and is an essential fertilizer. More →

  • 18 Jul
    Should You Bet On Small Cap Growth Stocks? Why It May Not Be A Good Option Now

    Should You Bet On Small Cap Growth Stocks? Why It May Not Be A Good Option Now

    • Small cap growth stocks only outperform in the two years after market bottoms.
    • At this moment they provide more risk and less returns than the S&P 500.

    Introduction

    While it’s possible to make money in the stock market, it’s not easy. One thing an investor should know well, and constantly assess, is their exposure to various kinds of stocks, from value and growth stocks to large or small caps. Each type of stock performs differently depending on the economic cycle. However, over the long term small caps and value stocks have outperformed the rest of the market. More →

  • 11 Jul
    Watch Out: The FOMC’s Current Stance Could Impact Your Portfolio in the Long Term

    Watch Out: The FOMC’s Current Stance Could Impact Your Portfolio in the Long Term

    • Bonds are becoming riskier as yields are falling.
    • Inflation is at 1.2% and very likely to get higher as full employment is approached.
    • The FOMC predicts stability which could create a great environment for traders.

    Introduction

    On July 6 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June meeting minutes were released. As they give clear insight into how the controllers of our monetary policy think, it is very important to analyze the minutes in order to better position one’s portfolio and also execute short- and medium-term trades. The FOMC gave a clear indication of their expectations in relation to future GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and its federal funds rate. All of the mentioned indicators will have different effects on various investments. More →

  • 08 Jul
    Prepare for Earnings Season: Prices, BREXIT, GDP & Trends

    Prepare for Earnings Season: Prices, BREXIT, GDP & Trends

    • This article provides a list of companies whose earnings will be affected by the BREXIT.
    • The dollar is stable thus we should not expect strong global currency effects.
    • The probability of U.S. recession has hit an 8-year high which should be detrimental for earnings in the next two years.

    Introduction

    In the long term, stock returns are perfectly correlated with the underlying earnings and therefore the upcoming Q2 2016 earnings season is very important. Positive earnings could push the markets to new highs while bad news could indicate the start of a recession or bear market. More →

  • 07 Jul
    Major Indicators Are All Positive, But Is It Time To Get Fearful?

    Major Indicators Are All Positive, But Is It Time To Get Fearful?

    • Economic data is strong and positive.
    • Neither jobless claims nor consumer spending show signs of weakness.
    • The issues remain in valuations, optimism and low yields.

    Introduction

    In the post-BREXIT world, there is a lot of speculation but no one knows what will happen. This article is going to provide a general outlook on how the economy is doing and try to extrapolate trends while ignoring the noise provided by the media. More →

  • 05 Jul
    You Fly the Friendly Skies, But Should You Invest in Airlines?

    You Fly the Friendly Skies, But Should You Invest in Airlines?

    • Airline valuations are incredibly low but the risks are also high, especially if a recession arrives.
    • Demand fell by 20% and stocks fell by more than 90% in 2009.
    • The global long term outlook is very positive with demand expected to double in the next 15 years.

    Introduction 

    In his 2007 letter to shareholders Warren Buffett stated that airlines are the worst sort of business because they require significant capital to engender growth and earn little or no money. He continues that creating a durable advantage has been elusive since the days of the Wright Brothers and even concludes that “if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” More →

  • 27 Jun
    Is BREXIT Just Noise?

    Is BREXIT Just Noise?

    • Markets fell on Friday but they are exactly where they have been in the last weeks.
    • BREXIT is noise, investors should focus on slower global growth and fragile financial systems.
    • The market is still overvalued in historical terms but there are some opportunities.

    Introduction

    An avalanche of articles since last week’s BREXIT is forecasting terrible things for the world economy and financial markets especially. Most focus on the huge declines stock markets saw on Friday, but let us first take a closer look. The UK FTSE 100 index fell 3.15% to 6,138 points on Friday, but all-in-all it was a positive week as last week started with the FTSE at 6,021 points. More →

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