S&P 500

  • 07 May
    What You Can Learn From Berkshire’s Annual Shareholder Meeting

    What You Can Learn From Berkshire’s Annual Shareholder Meeting

    This past Saturday, the Woodstock for capitalists was on as Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger held their annual shareholder conference.

    If you want to succeed in investing and reach your financial goals, this conference and the insights from it are all you need to listen to in order to learn about investing, what’s going on, and what to do about it.

    In today’s article, I’ll summarize what the key points to take out are and also save you the 6-hour watch.



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  • 03 May
    Buffett Thinks You Can Turn $400 Into $400,000, But Here’s The Reality

    Buffett Thinks You Can Turn $400 Into $400,000, But Here’s The Reality

    Buffett recently gave an interview where he discussed how if he would have invested the first $114.75 he made in 1942 in the S&P 500 and reinvested the dividends, he would now have $400,000.

    That’s a nice way to sell the stock market to people, but I really disagree with Buffett and with what he’s selling. Today, I’ll discuss reality.




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  • 25 Apr
    Here’s Why You Should Worry About What Happened In The Market Yesterday

    Here’s Why You Should Worry About What Happened In The Market Yesterday

    The thing with the stock market is that it gives you signals way ahead of time, but nobody wants to listen. The things I’ve been blabbering about over the past two years are the following:

    1. Higher interest rates will come just as the FED told us they would.
    2. Higher interest rates will squeeze valuations.
    3. Higher interest rates will slow down economic growth.
    4. Higher interest rates will slow down earnings growth.

    So, let’s start by discussing these.



    The 10-Year Treasury Passes 3%

    When the 10-year Treasury was below 3%, nobody seemed to care except a few crazy analysts like this scribe. However, when it crossed 3%, the market suddenly looked at what had been going on for nearly the last two years. More →

  • 13 Mar
    This Might Be The Biggest Risk To The Stock Market

    This Might Be The Biggest Risk To The Stock Market

    • ETFs have grown extremely fast in the last 10 years.
    • This amplifies the risks of the stock market because, since when does the majority know what’s best?
    • There is one small example of what happens when things stop growing.



    Introduction

    I’ll close my series on the risks to the stock market by discussing a risk that few see where the prevailing wisdom in one of investing through passively managed mutual funds and ETFs. This is creating a big risk, even if it doesn’t look like that now. Let me elaborate on that. More →

  • 07 Mar
    Risks Are Piling Up – That’s A Huge Red Flag For Stocks

    Risks Are Piling Up – That’s A Huge Red Flag For Stocks

    Last week I discussed how the risk are piling up on the debt side of the equation. However, those aren’t the only risks piling up which isn’t uncommon for humans. When we stray, we usually stray in a big way.

    So, on top of the debt, there are other huge risks and today the discussion will be about valuations:

    • Debt is being used recklessly.
    • Valuations don’t matter as growth is the key and profitability will come.
    • Book values are so old fashioned.
    • Stocks can only go up and corrections and bear markets don’t last long.
    • Real estate can only go up.
    • If you invest in index funds, you will do well.



    Now, I’ll discuss a lot of macro, and even some politics on Monday, but such factors might be insignificant or very significant depending on market valuations. High market valuations make stocks fragile, while low valuations make them more robust as once stocks are low, there is little room to go lower. However, when stocks are high, a lot of bad things can happen. The sad thing is that we have been there and we are doing the same mistakes all over again.  More →

  • 20 Dec
    This Is How You Should Look At Risk

    This Is How You Should Look At Risk

    • Something that has just increased in price isn’t considered risky, but something that decreases is.
    • Further, something that isn’t volatile is also not considered risky.
    • I’ll discuss perhaps the most important currently overlooked factor in investing, risk.



    Introduction

    A recent Wall Stree Journal article discussed how 2017 was a bad year for Chinese IPOs.

    On aggregate, China’s 2017 IPOs created a negative 5.7% return and more than half of them produced negative returns of over 10% where 10 of the 16 stocks still trade below IPO prices. More →

    By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily Risk S&P 500
  • 11 Dec
    Don’t Underestimate Market Sentiment

    Don’t Underestimate Market Sentiment

    • Sentiment is perhaps the strongest market driver. We’ll discuss the current situation.
    • It certainly doesn’t pay to be a fundamental market arbitrageur.
    • Should you follow the trend or is there a way to be smart about it?



    Introduction

    I’ve always preferred fundamental analysis, value investing, and looking for a margin of safety. That is still my main focus when analyzing and investing in a company, but I’ve learned that there is something no fundamental investor can disregard, market sentiment. More →

  • 06 Nov
    This Is Why You Need To Be Invested In Emerging Markets

    This Is Why You Need To Be Invested In Emerging Markets

    • In investing, having a strong tailwind is perhaps more important than picking the right stocks.
    • Finding good stocks in emerging markets isn’t that difficult, and plenty of them trade on U.S. exchanges.
    • It all boils down to fundamentals. Rebalance accordingly between developed and emerging markets.



    Introduction

    I’ve talked a lot about investing in emerging markets, but I’ve never assessed emerging markets from an holistic perspective.

    Today, you’ll read everything you need to know about investing in emerging markets. It’s extremely important to know why to invest in emerging markets, and then to understand the best way how to do so because not every investment in emerging markets is going to do well. More →

  • 18 Oct
    On The 30th Anniversary Of 1987’s Black Monday, Today’s Market Looks Eerily Similar. Should You Prepare For A Crash?

    On The 30th Anniversary Of 1987’s Black Monday, Today’s Market Looks Eerily Similar. Should You Prepare For A Crash?

    • The data indicates that the likelihood of a crash similar to October 1987 is the same today as it was then.
    • This doesn’t mean the stock market will crash tomorrow.
    • It only means that you should know yourself extremely well and relate your investments to your risk reward appetite. Only this can prevent you from the biggest mistake investors usually make, i.e. sell at the bottom of a bear market in total panic and capitulation.



    Introduction

    On Monday October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed a whopping 22.6% in one day. Is it possible that the same could happen tomorrow? Well, let’s compare the current market and to the one back then. More →

  • 16 Oct
    Doing This Could Increase Your Returns By $2.6 Million

    Doing This Could Increase Your Returns By $2.6 Million

    • It’s somehow accepted that stock returns have been between 8% and 10% in the past. That is correct, but only for a short period in history and it’s not true for all markets.
    • We’ll discuss stock returns over the past 100 years globally which will paint a different picture than what the predominant opinion would have you believe.
    • This doesn’t mean stocks are bad investments, you just have to understand how to go about them. After all, it’s your financial life on the line.



    Introduction

    Currently, most financial advisors will state that the best rational investing pattern is to invest in index funds as it’s impossible to beat the market, and that index funds have been a great investment vehicle over time.

    That would be a correct statement, but the returns that are noted by those who are trying to sell you an index fund are cherry-picked from historical examples. But the truth looks a little different. More →

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