Value Investing

03 Jan

AAPL’s bad news could be GREAT news for QCOM – but probably not yet

Early this morning, one of the biggest drivers of market volatility was Apple Inc. (AAPL), which disappointed investors by slashing their revenue forecast dramatically. AAPL appears to be trying to manage the conversation around the reasons for that, as they attributed the largest portion of the decline to weakness in China. That is clearly spooking the market today, as this news seems to add credence to the notion that China’s economic slowdown is starting to have a long-feared trickle effect on U.S. multinationals. There is an interesting element of the story, however that I think is being overlooked quite a bit by most investors and that could represent an interesting long-term opportunity. More →

By Thomas Moore Apple Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Technology Telecom Sector Value Investing Value Traps
02 Jan

ALK is a bargain-priced airline stock you shouldn’t ignore

One of the sectors that has led the entire stock market lower, and nearly to bear market levels is the transportation sector. Transportation is a sector that is normally expected to perform well when the economy is healthy, but as it has shown since the beginning of the last quarter of 2018, it can also lead the broad market as a bearish indicator when economic uncertainty and market fear increases. As measured by the S&P Transportation SPDR (XTN), the sector has declined by more than 18.5% since hitting its last major peak in late August of last year. That decline has really accelerated in the last month, as the sector has dropped almost 15% since the beginning of December. That has pushed a lot of stocks in this sector to levels not seen in the last two years. More →

By Thomas Moore Airline Industry Fundamental Analysis Interest Rates Investiv Daily Risk Technical Analysis Transportation US Economy Value Investing
01 Jan

VFC is down 28% from its peak – but that doesn’t make it a good buy yet

Moving into a new year means new resolutions, new goals, and excitement for new opportunities that lie ahead. The end of 2018 marked the first year in a decade that the stock market closed in negative territory. The S&P 500’s decline for the entire year was a little more than -5%, which might not seem like too much of a big deal by itself; but the real story is the fact that after hitting its most recent all-time high in September, the market tested legitimate bear market territory before rallying back to close the year down 13% from that peak. More →

By Thomas Moore Discretionary Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Retail Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing Value Traps
31 Dec

YUM has bucked the entire market – is it a good investment right now?

When the stock market struggles, the tendency for most investors is to start looking for “safe haven” investments. That often means getting out of stocks and moving your money into less volatile options like bonds or very short-term, interest-bearing instruments like Treasury bills, money markets or Certificates of Deposit. Some investors will be a bit more daring by keeping their toes in the market, but by looking for stocks that they think should hold up reasonably well even if the economy begins to weaken or move into a recessionary period. There are always stocks that buck the broader market’s trend; these are the exceptions to the rule, but the simple fact of their rarity is something that makes them worth paying attention to. More →

By Thomas Moore Defensive Stocks Discretionary Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Retail Risk Value Investing
28 Dec

Where is JNPR’s bargain price?

While the market has been using the days since the Christmas break to rally higher, leading some investors to believe that perhaps the sky isn’t falling just yet, the fact is that the market remains extremely volatile right now, with plenty of uncertainty ahead. That means that we’re not out of the woods just yet, and it’s still a good idea to be cautious and very selective about taking on new trades. More →

By Thomas Moore Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Technical Analysis Technology Telecom Sector Value Investing
27 Dec

Does CVS’ 16% drop since it merged with Aetna make it a bargain?

A month ago, I wrote about the merger between pharmacy kingpin CVS Health Corporation (CVS) and healthcare insurer Aetna Inc. I decided to try to determine if the deal, which closed shortly after I wrote about it, offered a compelling reason to buy the stock at its price at the time, which at the time was near to its 52-week highs above $80 per share. Since then, the broad market’s decline has taken the stock down a peg or two, pushing it down near to its 52-week lows around $65. That decline – a little over 16% in about a month’s worth of time seems like a good reason to take a second look at the stock and reevaluate the opportunity that is there. More →

By Thomas Moore Fundamental Analysis Healthcare Insurance Sector Investiv Daily Value Investing
26 Dec

MOS is down about 26% this month – is it a good bargain?

it seems like the global market has been waiting for the last couple of days for the next shoe to drop in the U.S. The Christmas holiday meant that U.S. markets closed early, and remained closed for Christmas Day itself as always, but that didn’t stop markets in Asia from their regular activity, and most seemed to operate on shaky, nervous ground. Always ready with a controversial, nerve-wracking sound bite, the Trump administration used the Christmas break to suggest the federal government’s shutdown will continue until Democrats get on board with his border wall plans, as well as to intensify speculation that the President is looking for a way to get rid of Fed chairman Jerome Powell. More →

By Thomas Moore Donald Trump FED Fibonacci Retracements Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Materials Potash Risk Technical Analysis US Politics Value Investing
24 Dec

This market is making stocks like BWA look like bigger bargains every day

The market has been moving closer and closer into bear market territory, and if you’re a conservative investor, that is something that should make you more and more aware of the increasing risk of taking on new positions. If we are, in fact looking at the beginning of a new bear market, history suggests the worst is still ahead; the two previous bear markets in this century both saw the stock market decline by more than 50% before finding a bottom. More →

By Thomas Moore Auto Industry Auto Industry Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Technical Analysis Value Investing
20 Dec

Does an oil bear market spell doom for stocks like MRO?

One of the stores that seems to have really gotten lost in the jumble and noise of the stock market sell off coming in to the end of the year is the way oil prices have tanked at the same time. Questions about a global economic slowdown have played a big role in that decline, but the overall skittishness in the stock market certainly isn’t helping matters. Since the beginning of October, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is down almost 39%, while Brent crude is down about 33% over the same period. That decline significantly outpaces the stock market’s decline, and yet all of the market noise is about whether the stock market is finally going to turn bearish, what the Fed is going to do with interest rates, and what will happen in China. More →

By Thomas Moore Energy Sector Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Oil Risk US Economy Value Investing
19 Dec

A semiconductor bear market is a good long-term opportunity for stocks like SWKS

The market has not been kind to the semiconductor over the past several months; since the beginning of September, the sector has led the broad market to the downside, with its overall decline since then at nearly 17%. That covers almost all of the sector’s almost 20% drop since March of this year, and clearly puts the sector ahead of the rest of the market, even as it pushes deeper into correction territory. More →

By Thomas Moore Fundamental Analysis Investiv Daily Risk Semiconductors Tariffs Value Investing

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