Jobs Report

  • 10 May
    The Trouble The Market Refuses To See

    The Trouble The Market Refuses To See

    • GDP growth is at three year lows, car sales have dropped 11%, and the biggest sector contributing to new employment is about to go into oversupply.
    • The FED is in a stalemate situation. It should raise interest rates and deleverage, but it’s already too late as the economy, government, and population is hooked on low interest rates.

    Introduction

    The market’s behavior reminds me of the three wise monkeys. One doesn’t see, the other doesn’t speak, and the third doesn’t hear. The VIX index, a measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices, indicates that investors expect stability and didn’t even react to the bad news coming from the automotive industry, jobs, and a very important bankruptcy. More →

  • 06 Sep
    Headlines Are Telling Us To Worry, But Is It Time For Greed Instead?

    Headlines Are Telling Us To Worry, But Is It Time For Greed Instead?

    • Jobs look great, more people than ever are employed and the number is consistently growing.
    • There is nothing to worry about with China as it has room to grow and incredible potential.
    • Economic scares based on short term news provide great investing opportunities; the macro trends are what you should worry about.

    Introduction

    As investors it’s important to know what’s going on in the economy, but what has to be clearly differentiated are single data points and trends.

    We are constantly bombarded with pieces of information that can mean anything. Last Friday’s jobs report—with 151,000 new jobs—was below the 180,000 expectation of analysts. Headlines like the Wall Street Journal’s “Soft Jobs Data Cools Market Expectations on Fed Rate Increase” were seen on every news site, but such data seldom has an actual influence on your returns. More →

  • 08 Aug
    Signs of Fragility in the Economy Point to an Impending Bear Market. What To Do Now To Protect Yourself.

    Signs of Fragility in the Economy Point to an Impending Bear Market. What To Do Now To Protect Yourself.

    • The last jobs report was good news but it also indicates higher costs and full employment.
    • An “easy to hire, easy to fire” mentality is in the air.
    • Healthcare, cash or short term trades should be the best options in this situation.

    Introduction

    Last week the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached yet another record high. Aggressive central bank stimulation pushes investors to disregard risks and look for any kind of yield or growth. Not looking at risk is the worst thing an investor can do, but they also shouldn’t fight the trend. More →

  • 26 Jul
    The Economic News is Very Good, But Keep An Eye On the FED and GDP This Week

    The Economic News is Very Good, But Keep An Eye On the FED and GDP This Week

    • Housing is showing inflationary signs but still offers an opportunity to profit from the rising trend as a downturn is unlikely and not expected in the short term.
    • Amidst all the positive news, manufacturing turned negative. Yet despite this, stock valuations keep going up, increasing the risk.
    • In the week ahead: the FED’s decision and GDP data. It looks like stable weather in the near future.

    Introduction

    The last sequence of economic data was very positive. In this article we are going to discuss the important data coming out this week and analyze the information released last week. Then we’ll combine it with the current situation on the market and, as always, analyze the risks and rewards. More →

  • 07 Jul
    Major Indicators Are All Positive, But Is It Time To Get Fearful?

    Major Indicators Are All Positive, But Is It Time To Get Fearful?

    • Economic data is strong and positive.
    • Neither jobless claims nor consumer spending show signs of weakness.
    • The issues remain in valuations, optimism and low yields.

    Introduction

    In the post-BREXIT world, there is a lot of speculation but no one knows what will happen. This article is going to provide a general outlook on how the economy is doing and try to extrapolate trends while ignoring the noise provided by the media. More →

  • 09 May
    How the Jobs Report Affects Stocks

    How the Jobs Report Affects Stocks

    • The April jobs report shows two sides: slower hiring and increased working times and wages.
    • The long term outlook is pessimistic due to the constant decline in the labor participation rate.

    Introduction

    On May 6, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released its monthly employment situation summary.

    The report is released on the first Friday of the month for the previous month. It consists of two parts: one presents non-farm payrolls, hours worked and hourly earnings, and the other is created by surveying more than 60,000 households in order to extract the unemployment rate. More →