Market Forecast

  • 12 Apr
    How To Prepare For Anything The Economy Throws At You

    How To Prepare For Anything The Economy Throws At You

    • All stocks will rise with a rising tide, therefore it’s wise to buy those stocks that won’t fall off a cliff in a recession.
    • The usual suspects—like consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare—are good ideas, but not at any price.
    • Bonds are close to becoming a win win situation.

    Introduction

    Yesterday we analyzed the FED’s latest meeting minutes, and saw how when the FED applies historical probability calculations to their own estimations, the result is that anything can happen.

    The FED itself stated that, in the next few years, economic growth could be anywhere between -0.5% and 4%, unemployment between 2% and 7%, and inflation between 1% and 3% with a 70% confidence interval. A 70% confidence interval means that there is a 30% chance economic indicators end up outside the above mentioned ranges. More →

  • 02 Feb
    It’s Time To Pay Attention To The Euro

    It’s Time To Pay Attention To The Euro

    • Currency movements can be easily explained through macro trends, but the timing isn’t that precise. However, long term investors can reach additional returns by following a few easy steps.
    • Cyclical currency patterns are natural, and under the influence of economic growth in the long term.
    • The dollar is approaching its peak and is ready to return to its historical mean.

    Introduction

    In last weekend’s Sunday Edition, Investiv Founder, Shane Rawlings, elaborated on how long term macro trends inflect exactly at the moment when there seems to be a general consensus that the trend will last for a long, long time.

    Nobody was buying stocks in 1981 because they thought high inflation would stay around forever. On the other hand, in the 1990s, people were convinced that the best investment was internet stocks. And in the 2000s, the conviction shifted to the real estate market as it seemed that the only way to go was up forever.

    Currently there is a strong conviction that the U.S. dollar is going to strengthen as interest rates rise and the U.S. economy grows, and while Europe continues with monetary easing. More →

  • 02 Nov
    Are You Ready For The Tech Revolution? Sven Tells You How To Position Yourself

    Are You Ready For The Tech Revolution? Sven Tells You How To Position Yourself

    • New technologies are coming fast and will be coming faster in the future.
    • It’s important to avoid getting caught in a declining industry, but it’s also important to not buy into the hype of growth industries at crazy valuations.
    • We’ll try to find sectors that will benefit no matter what happens.

    Introduction

    Last week’s unveiling of Elon Musk’s new “solar roof” poses a very important question for investors: How is your portfolio positioned in relation to structural changes and disruptive technologies?

    We might look at solar roofs as uneconomic at the moment—or call a CEO crazy who wants to colonize Mars—but the trends are here to stay. Rare are those among us who would have reacted positively 20 years ago to the idea that it would soon be the same process buying an electric powered or a gasoline fueled car. More →

  • 28 Jun
    Is the Negative Cycle Ending in the Shipping Sector?

    Is the Negative Cycle Ending in the Shipping Sector?

    • Most shipping companies are down more than 90% and the short term outlook does not look bright.
    • After 25 years of 10% global fleet gross tonnage growth, 2016 is a turning point with growth lower than 5%.
    • Increased interest rates, fewer ships and constant global trade growth show that there are investment opportunities in the shipping world.

    Introduction

    It seems strange to analyze the shipping sector in the current volatile markets, but sound sector analyses help to keep nerves firm and to clearly valuate the opportunities a bear market brings. The shipping sector is interesting due to the fact that it represents a perfect example for a bottomless investment theory and an excellent investment opportunity for those who can and know how to catch a falling knife. More →

  • 14 Jun
    Big Returns on Silver Could Be at the Finish Line, But Are You In for the Wild Ride?

    Big Returns on Silver Could Be at the Finish Line, But Are You In for the Wild Ride?

    • Silver is both a precious metal and a commodity, which makes it a very interesting investment.
    • Silver prices jumped 26% year to date and the market has been in a deficit for 3 years.
    • In the long term, silver will continue to be very volatile but might present excellent investment opportunities for brave investors.

    Introduction

    Silver is a special metal as it is considered both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Silver is used for solar panels, water filtration, jewelry, electrical contacts and conductors, LCD screens, x-rays, disinfectants and for other various applications. This makes silver have, unlike gold, a pragmatic use influencing the demand for the metal. More →

  • 10 Jun
    Global Smartphone Growth Isn’t Done Yet – Should You Invest?

    Global Smartphone Growth Isn’t Done Yet – Should You Invest?

    • The smartphone trend is bound to continue as 25% of the world has low penetration levels.
    • 2015 was stellar in growth so it is logical that 2016 will be somewhat slower.
    • Valuations are really cheap when compared to the general market.

    Introduction

    The smartphone industry is not only interesting because it includes the biggest company by market capitalization (Apple – NASDAQ: AAPL) but also because it is in a global growing trend and has low valuations. This article is going to provide an overview of the industry and its two biggest players. More →

  • 09 Jun
    Forget About The November Elections – This Will Impact Your Investments Even More

    Forget About The November Elections – This Will Impact Your Investments Even More

    • Slower global growth will have a much stronger impact on corporate earnings than interest rate increases.
    • US productivity is declining and GDP growth is based on increased consumption amidst cheap financing.
    • Corporate earnings are the source of your investment returns, and the picture is not one of growth.

    Introduction

    Amid all the fuss around interest rates, Yellen, jobs, Clinton and Trump there is one piece of information that is very significant for investors but is often disregarded. More →

  • 07 Jun
    Get Ready For A Zinc Deficit

    Get Ready For A Zinc Deficit

    • Zinc prices are already up by 50% this year and more growth is expected.
    • Mine closures and limited mine openings create a supply gap.
    • The World Bank estimates tight zinc markets for the foreseeable future.

    Introduction

    Zinc is the fourth most used metal in the world. It is mostly used for steel galvanization – the process of corrosion-resistant zinc plating. Other uses include alloys such as brass, and dietary supplements. More →

  • 06 Jun
    Headline Rollercoaster: The Economic Limbo Continues

    Headline Rollercoaster: The Economic Limbo Continues

    • Europe and Japan continue with their easing policies as not much changes.
    • Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index is positive but not far from stagnation.
    • US data flirts between a dead cat bounce and a stronger economic recovery.
    • Finding specific good investments should be the best answer to uncertain economic times ahead.

    Introduction

    Last week was an interesting one as it was filled with various economic news. It is important to summarize that news to see if it will move the needle as the market has moved only sideways since December 2014. More →

  • 03 Jun
    Sportswear: A Different Global Warming Trend

    Sportswear: A Different Global Warming Trend

    • Sports apparel and footwear sales have jumped 42% in the seven years and the trend is continuing.
    • The industry has a higher PE ratio than the market, but offers individual investing opportunities.
    • There is no sportswear ETF so only individual investments are available for investors wanting to be part of the growth.

    Introduction

    The sportswear industry has been one of the fastest growing industries in this decade, building on the developing trend of sporting, healthy living and fashionable clothes, or the so called ‘athleisure’ trend. The trend is expected to continue as it spreads globally and sportswear sales are expected to hit $300 billion in 2017. More →

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