Oil

  • 29 Jun
    Oil Is Down. Is It Time To Buy?

    Oil Is Down. Is It Time To Buy?

    • Even if oil prices are volatile, demand is stable and costs are known. This allows us to find the balance value and trade around it.
    • With oil above $50, all big producers are profitable and expanding investments and production, but that’s not a good long-term sign for oil prices.
    • For low risk, high return investments, investors should wait for some kind of panic that pushes oil prices below $40.

    Introduction

    In March when oil prices were around $54 per barrel, I wrote an article that described a low risk, high reward investment strategy related to oil.

    The article, available here, advised readers to wait for oil prices to fall much lower to lower investing risk and increase returns because the long-term oil price is defined by supply and demand surrounding production costs while in the short term, anything can happen as OPEC news can easily move markets. More →

  • 02 Mar
    A Low Risk High Reward Investment Approach To Oil

    A Low Risk High Reward Investment Approach To Oil

    • Oil prices have stabilized, however, both further upside and downside are possible as nobody knows what OPEC will do or decide.
    • U.S. shale producers are back in the game as oil prices stabilize above $50.
    • A low risk high reward investment strategy is to start investing in oil at prices below $40, or even $30. If oil doesn’t reach those levels, well there will always be other investment opportunities.

    Introduction

    Oil prices have relatively stabilized in the last three months after three years of high volatility. More →

    By Sven Carlin Commodities Investiv Daily Oil
  • 20 Feb
    Sell Your ‘High Yield’ Immediately – Aggressive Traders Get Short

    Sell Your ‘High Yield’ Immediately – Aggressive Traders Get Short

    • Due to higher oil prices, ‘high yield’ bond yields are approaching historical lows while interest rates and inflation are increasing. Investors should be grateful for the amazing opportunity to unload.
    • ‘High yield’ ETFs have grown from 0% to 10% of the total fixed income ETF market in less than 10 years.
    • Apart from rising interest rates, illiquid ‘high yield’ primary markets in relation to the highly liquid secondary ETF markets signal potential Armageddon as there will be no buyers when the ETF trend reverses.

    Introduction

    I usually look for investments where the risk is low and return is high as asymmetric risk reward situations provide the highest and safest returns. Today I’m going to do the opposite, discuss a high risk low reward investment. If you own or are attracted to higher yields, or want a short play, this article is for you. More →

  • 21 Dec
    Should You Invest In Russia? Sven Tells You Why It Might Not Be Such A Good Bet

    Should You Invest In Russia? Sven Tells You Why It Might Not Be Such A Good Bet

    • The numbers make Russia the cheapest global market.
    • However, most of the market is made up of energy and financials, while normal companies are fairly priced.
    • Long term economics in Russia aren’t positive as the country is completely dependent on oil prices.

    Russia As An Investment Opportunity

    Russia has been the best performing market year-to-date and is up 50%. However, it’s still considered by many in the financial environment as one of the cheapest global markets as it’s still far from the pre-sanction and higher oil prices levels of a few years ago. More →

  • 20 Dec
    Be Overweight In These Sectors In 2017

    Be Overweight In These Sectors In 2017

    • Increasing interest rates make earnings growth unlikely and increase the probability for a decline of the S&P 500.
    • To beat the S&P 500, you have to invest in sectors that offer a better risk reward ratio than the S&P 500.

    Don’t Go For 10 To 20 Percent Returns In 2017

    With the S&P 500 yielding 3.85% going into 2017, stocks in general are currently an investment vehicle that gives you a small and limited upside with a potentially large downside.

    We know that the FED plans to raise interest rates another three times in 2017. If that happens, the investments people consider most secure—like treasuries, dividend paying blue-chips or REITs—will be hit the hardest because as required yields go up, their asset prices will go down. Therefore, the best way to prepare for 2017 is to position yourself so that if the FED raises rates, your upside is far bigger than 3.85% and your downside far smaller than the potential downside of the currently overvalued stock market. More →

  • 06 Nov
    Sunday Edition: What Does EWT Portend For The S&P 500?

    Sunday Edition: What Does EWT Portend For The S&P 500?

    This Sunday Edition will conclude our series on the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). I hope you have enjoyed reading them as a different perspective on the markets, and hope I haven’t confused you too much.

    To wrap things up we are going to analyze the S&P 500 and see what the future holds for the major stock market indices – that is, according to EWT. More →

  • 16 Oct
    Sunday Edition: Is The Oil Market Doomed Or Is There A Deep Long Term Value Play?

    Sunday Edition: Is The Oil Market Doomed Or Is There A Deep Long Term Value Play?

    Four safe companies yielding 3% – 6% revealed below.

    It’s essential to understand that fundamental value will be only one of the factors determining a security’s price on the day you buy it. Try to have psychology and technicals on your side as well.

    – Howard Marks

    In my opinion, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital is one of the savviest contrarian investors on Wall Street. It is in the spirit of trying to put the fundamentals, psychology, and technicals on your side that I’m sharing this series on the Elliott Wave Theory. More →

  • 13 Oct
    How To Spot The Big Trends Of The Future

    How To Spot The Big Trends Of The Future

    • In the short term, the market is heavily influenced by new information and noise.
    • In the long term, there are clear trends that can give you an edge to beat the market.
    • We’ll discuss a few trends that are clear but that will take time to develop.

    Introduction

    Some argue that the market is efficient and prices always reflect available information. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) was developed by Chicago School of Economics Professor Eugene Fama who was also awarded a Nobel prize for his findings in 2013. Implications of the EMH are that it is impossible to beat the market consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices only react to new information or changes in discount rates. More →

  • 07 Oct
    Oil & Gold Are Speculation Plays At The Moment, Are You Up For It?

    Oil & Gold Are Speculation Plays At The Moment, Are You Up For It?

    • The long term trend for oil is clear, but short term moves make it a great trading asset.
    • Gold is in a decline as the global economy looks stable and yields are slowly increasing.
    • A quality miner with dollar cost averaging might be the best gold diversification option.

    Introduction

    Two indicators that can give us insight into how the global economy is doing are gold and oil.

    Estimations from various analysts are all over the place for both commodities, some say gold will be at $1,900 in a year or two and oil at $100 while some see oil below $30 or even worthless and gold at $800. What will happen is anyone’s guess as the factors that will influence the outcomes are as yet unknown. As an example, nobody knows if Russia or Iran are going to increase oil output or if additional supply from U.S. shale will be enough to push prices down again. Nevertheless, a look at price movements from the two commodities can give us some interesting insights into the short term expectations and aid  us in the assessment of risk. More →

  • 28 Sep
    Earnings Season Is Approaching. Are You Ready?

    Earnings Season Is Approaching. Are You Ready?

    • Earnings will decline for the sixth consecutive quarter.
    • We question the 2017 forecasted earnings growth based purely on higher oil prices.
    • We’ll take a look at what can be done to limit your risks and increase returns.

    Introduction

    What we know is that for the last 5 quarters, the S&P 500 has had declining earnings. The situation doesn’t seem to change course for the next quarter, but most analysts expect earnings growth to come in 2017 as a result of a rebound in energy prices.

    As our readers know, this rebound should have already happened six months ago according to the same analysts’ expectations. In this article we’ll tell their story, but we’ll also analyze what else is out there that can influence future earnings. More →

1 2