- All stocks will rise with a rising tide, therefore it’s wise to buy those stocks that won’t fall off a cliff in a recession.
- The usual suspects—like consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare—are good ideas, but not at any price.
- Bonds are close to becoming a win win situation.
Yesterday we analyzed the FED’s latest meeting minutes, and saw how when the FED applies historical probability calculations to their own estimations, the result is that anything can happen.
The FED itself stated that, in the next few years, economic growth could be anywhere between -0.5% and 4%, unemployment between 2% and 7%, and inflation between 1% and 3% with a 70% confidence interval. A 70% confidence interval means that there is a 30% chance economic indicators end up outside the above mentioned ranges. More →