US Economy

  • 02 Mar
    I’ve Seen Hyperinflation, Debt Bubbles, & Stock Market Implosions… Here’s Where The U.S. Economy Is Headed

    I’ve Seen Hyperinflation, Debt Bubbles, & Stock Market Implosions… Here’s Where The U.S. Economy Is Headed

    • There’s a big difference between an exuberant view and a risk-reward view.
    • This also often leads to relative underperformance but long term outperformance, which is something difficult for 99% of investors to grasp.
    • This is my view on the markets now.



    Introduction

    I’ll start with a story of Croatia, the land I was born and raised in because while it might be a small country, it has seen so much history there is a lot to learn.  More →

    By Sven Carlin Debt Investiv Daily US Economy
  • 01 Mar
    Ray Dalio Says There’s 70% Chance Of Recession. Here’s What You Need To Know.

    Ray Dalio Says There’s 70% Chance Of Recession. Here’s What You Need To Know.

    • Investing is about you – we’ll go through some questions that will help in making better investing decisions over the long term.
    • Dalio answers a question on his European short positions.
    • The chances of a recession are pretty significant.



    Introduction

    In a recent interview at Harvard, Ray Dalio discussed a lot of things that I would like to cover here as I think they are extremely important.

    Let’s start with what is most important, how to be a better investor. After that, we’ll get into what’s most interesting but less important, the economy and the markets. More →

  • 23 Nov
    The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It

    The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It

    • All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?
    • I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.
    • As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.



    Introduction

    To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →

  • 08 Nov
    Is Everything Now Too Big To Fail?

    Is Everything Now Too Big To Fail?

    • Today, we’ll discuss how the “too big to fail” concept has evolved since it was first used back in 1984.
    • The U.S. stock market to pension funds relation shows that even the stock market is simply too big to fail.
    • In Europe, the situation is even worse. Everything there is too big to fail, from countries to corporations to junk bonds.



    Introduction

    “Too big to fail” is a concept that you probably recognize from the 2009 financial crisis when many corporations, particularly financial institutions, were considered too big to fail due to the negative impact their demise would have on the whole economic system.

    In order to prevent massive negative effects on the economy, and also to prevent a 1930s depression-style situation, governments intervened and bailed out the distressed assets. More →

  • 26 Sep
    The Best Strategies For Investing Late In The Economic Cycle

    The Best Strategies For Investing Late In The Economic Cycle

    • What has to be done in the late part of the economic cycle isn’t a secret. I’ll describe the how and what.
    • However, as always in investing, the question is why we aren’t doing the rational thing.
    • I’ll ask you a question that will help you answer how much and whether you should rebalance.

    Introduction

    Yesterday, we discussed how the economy is in the late part of the economic cycle and everything is leading toward a recession.

    No one knows exactly when the next recession will start or what the trigger will be. So the only thing to do is to be prepared. More →

  • 25 Sep
    These 5 Charts Say A Recession Is Near

    These 5 Charts Say A Recession Is Near

    • A recession usually takes everyone by surprise.
    • The current environment is ripe for a recession, we just need a trigger.
    • The stock market will react as investors react, which is usually completely irrationally. Be prepared.

    Introduction

    The latest FED meeting didn’t give us much news.

    The monetary policy remains accommodative with the interest rate between 1% and 1.25%, while the balance sheet normalization program is purely cosmetic with minimum monthly asset sales.

    We shouldn’t expect anything else from the FED as their objective is to maintain full employment and stability. As long as there isn’t significant inflation, the low interest rates help lower the unemployment rate. More →

  • 21 Sep
    Here’s Why You Need To Think About The Current Market Risks

    Here’s Why You Need To Think About The Current Market Risks

    • Evolution hasn’t created us to look at risks in investing, which is something that can be very costly.
    • I’ll discuss in a simple, but straightforward way what the current market risks are to be aware of.
    • If you’re careful, you can earn up to $500k in 20 years on a $100k portfolio.

    Introduction

    Investing is a very delicate thing and few understand that we aren’t wired for success in it. Part of our brain, the amygdala, through millions of years of evolution, has taught us to fight when we might be wrong, to prove our dominance and our convictions in order to prevail and spread our genetics. More →

  • 11 Sep
    Out Of This World Debt Levels Will Damn Future Generations

    Out Of This World Debt Levels Will Damn Future Generations

    • Debt levels are the key driver of economic growth in developed countries. So keep an eye on debt.
    • The velocity of money, household debt, car loans and sales aren’t telling a good story.
    • Globally, the situation isn’t much better. However, there are a few exceptions.

    Introduction

    In today’s article, I’ll analyze the current global debt environment.

    Debt is an economic factor that is unwatched as long as things are going well but as soon at things turn south, everyone will be screaming about a debt crisis and the end of the financial world as we know it.

    Given this, it’s extremely important to know what is going on, how sustainable the current debt levels are, what the impact of debt on the economy is, how to position your portfolio, and perhaps even how to take advantage of potential black swans arising from future debt instabilities. More →

  • 08 Sep
    Why You Should Be Paying Attention To Bond Yields

    Why You Should Be Paying Attention To Bond Yields

    • It’s extremely important to watch bond yields as they define the health of the economy and financial markets.
    • I was correct last year when I said to short bonds, but now things are changing and shorting bonds is no longer a low risk thing to do.
    • I’ll discuss what to look for to protect your portfolio from what bond yields are saying.

    Introduction

    Last year, I was a bond bear and wrote about how investors should avoid bonds, especially as the FED was announcing a tightening policy. I was right on with my forecasts as bond yields have almost doubled since June 2016 which lowered bond values. More →

  • 16 Aug
    Why You Need To Prepare For All Hell To Break Loose

    Why You Need To Prepare For All Hell To Break Loose

    • The last stock bull market was influenced by central bank activity, that’s clear. What’s next is the question.
    • I’ll describe three potential scenarios that could impact our financial system.
    • One is good, the second is interesting, while the third is ugly.

    Introduction

    The general expectation is that the FED will start selling securities in order to tighten monetary policy, that the ECB will slowly stop buying, and that nothing will change in Japan. Nevertheless, such a situation would lead to an environment where the additional liquidity created by central banks finally dries up. As the liquidity provided by central banks is the main reason behind this bull market, should investors begin to cut their positions?

    In order to elaborate on this question, we’ll first analyze the situation, the expected situation, and then possible scenarios in order to give you the best answer on how to prepare yourself for what might happen. It’s extremely important to do so and, as you will see, it isn’t that difficult. More →

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