European Union

14 May

Can You Hear The Economic Warning Bells Ringing?

A quick investment perspective on the current economic news will give us insight into what to do with our portfolio, what the best risk reward portfolio allocation is at this point in time, and what one can expect to happen.

I’ll look at U.S. economic data, emerging market yields, and touch on Italy which is becoming a bigger and bigger risk.

Economic Data – Strong, But Also Weak

The headline consumer price index came in at 2.5% which is good, but might lead to higher interest rates which is a dance that has to stop at some point. More →

By Sven Carlin ECB Emerging Markets European Union FED Global Risks Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Italy Risk US Economy
18 Dec

There Are Big Global Risks Out There – Here’s How To Invest For Them

If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from my research on financial markets, it’s that you always have to expect the unexpected. Nothing is linear, everything works in cycles and what monetary policy makers say is usually wrong.

Last week when the FED raised interest rates, Janet Yellen said: “We’re in a synchronized expansion. This is the first time in many years we’ve seen this.”

That might be true, but the fact is that every economy today is a global economy and the global economy isn’t synchronized. At some point, it will crack somewhere as it always does. The important thing for us is to be prepared for something like that and to see how to best position our portfolios for the consequences that a financial shock might create. More →

By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Central Banks Emerging Markets European Union FED Global Risks Great Britain Interest Rates International Diversification Investiv Daily
23 Nov
The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It
All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?

I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.

As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Black Swan Events Central Banks Commodities Debt European Union FED Global Risks Inflation Investiv Daily Leverage Market Forecast Recession US Economy Valuations
19 Sep
10 More European High Dividend Yielders You Should Consider Now
There are interesting recession-proof companies on this list, all yielding 5% or more.

Some companies are cash cows, but don’t forget that tobacco companies have been the best investment in the past 30 years.

I’ll finish this list with a systemic risk analysis and a surprise stock with huge growth potential that offers a nice yield of 3%.

Introduction

I hope you enjoyed the first part of my two-part series of European stocks with dividends that yield 5% or more.

Today, I’ll present you with another 10 interesting dividend plays, and I’m sure you’ll find interesting picks that fit your portfolio risk reward appetite. More →
By Sven Carlin Dividends European Union International Diversification Investiv Daily
18 Sep
These 10 European Businesses All Offer Over 5% Dividends, But Are They Ripe For The Picking?
There are some good European businesses with yields above 5% that will probably grow in the future.

There is even a Dutch speed algorithm trader that offers a yield of 5.39% and hasn’t lost money on any single day in the last 3 years.

There are also companies to avoid, like Italian banks.

Introduction

On the U.S. stock market, it’s difficult to find dividend yields of above 5% from long-term established companies that have a stable business and good long-term prospects. But in Europe, there are plenty of companies with dividend yields of above 5% that seem like ok businesses and are too cheap to be true. More →
By Sven Carlin European Union International Diversification Investiv Daily
11 Sep
Out Of This World Debt Levels Will Damn Future Generations
Debt levels are the key driver of economic growth in developed countries. So keep an eye on debt.

The velocity of money, household debt, car loans and sales aren’t telling a good story.

Globally, the situation isn’t much better. However, there are a few exceptions.

Introduction

In today’s article, I’ll analyze the current global debt environment.

Debt is an economic factor that is unwatched as long as things are going well but as soon at things turn south, everyone will be screaming about a debt crisis and the end of the financial world as we know it.

Given this, it’s extremely important to know what is going on, how sustainable the current debt levels are, what the impact of debt on the economy is, how to position your portfolio, and perhaps even how to take advantage of potential black swans arising from future debt instabilities. More →
By Sven Carlin Auto Industry Bank of Japan Central Banks China Debt Emerging Markets European Union FED Financial Engineering Global Risks Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Monetary Easing Recession US Economy
09 Aug
Germany Is Solid As A Rock – Sven Has Some Investment Ideas For How To Take Advantage
In terms of fundamentals, the German stock index is overvalued compared to the S&P 500.

However, there are a few stocks that could offer interesting diversification possibilities as revenues aren’t that dependent on Europe.

Some companies also give inflationary protection which is one of the greatest European risks for investors in the long term.

Introduction

I’ve described the investment environment in Europe as very risky due to the many black swans that could hit it, from political to financial issues. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that there aren’t any good investments in Europe, especially for those who want to take advantage of the liquidity provided by the ECB and from the possibility that the ECB follows the Bank of Japan, i.e. starts buying stocks when it becomes clear that buying corporate bonds isn’t enough to keep the economy growing and to spur inflation. More →
By Sven Carlin European Union Germany International Diversification Investiv Daily
01 Aug
Want The Secret Formula For Economic Success? Look To Ray Dalio
It’s possible to estimate a country’s economic growth with precision and I have done so in this article. Perhaps it’s better to say that I used the available—and free—research done by 1,500 Bridgewater employees.

As future economic trends are pretty clear, it’s important to position one’s portfolio accordingly.

However, don’t just jump into emerging markets at any price. Compare the fundamentals and the growth in relation to your investment horizon.

Introduction

There’s a lot of talk about economics, economic growth, what drives it, etc., but there aren’t many facts that properly show links between causes and effects.

One person who researched those links and shared the findings is Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager of Bridgewater Associates. In today’s article, I’ll describe what Ray found and then analyze how we can best position our portfolios in order to be more exposed to positive forces and less to negative forces. More →
By Sven Carlin China Emerging Markets European Union India International Diversification Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Ray Dalio
09 Feb
Europe Is A Long Term Ticking Time Bomb
Europe is made up of many countries, which means there are even more politicians that just want to get reelected creating an immense short term attitude.

Don’t buy Europe just because it underperformed the S&P 500, and don’t buy European debt at single digit yields.

Tightening won’t work as many countries have an average debt to GDP ratio above 85%, therefore there is a high chance that the Euro remains weak for longer.

Introduction

The IMF just reported that the situation in Greece is getting better, but the debt is unsustainable. This contradictory as it implies a long term catastrophe and short term positivity. I’m flabbergasted on a daily basis by the incapacity or unwillingness of the financial world and monetary institutions to look at the long term.

That’s why I’m here. To warn you about impending catastrophes and perhaps even increase your returns in the process. More →
By Sven Carlin Central Banks ECB European Union Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast
14 Oct
BREXIT Is Slowly Unraveling, Don’t Get Caught Up In It
The pound didn’t just fall last week, it has been falling for two years.

As the UK imports 50% more than it exports, inflation is on the table for certain along with a high risk of stagflation.

We’ll analyze the potential risks and rewards for in the UK and the pound.

The British Pound

You probably know that the UK voted to leave the European Union back in June in a move called BREXIT. The UK government hasn’t yet started the procedure of leaving, so there haven’t yet been direct effects on markets, the economy, and jobs, but something investors don’t like is uncertainty. More →
By Sven Carlin Brexit European Union Great Britain Investiv Daily Recession

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