Debt

10 Apr

Here’s How To Get Out Of Debt & Start Accumulating Wealth

Investing in stocks is just one part of your financial life picture and perhaps secondary, not primary.

Stock price fluctuations and the amazing success of the past 35 years make it seem like the stock market is the most important thing when it comes to your finances. However, in this motivational personal finance article, I’m going to discuss something more important and touch on the complete personal finance picture which in the end, if done smartly, will lead you to your financial goals. The stock market might not lead you to your goals as 30 years of negative cumulative returns aren’t uncommon. More →

By Sven Carlin Debt Investing Strategy Investiv Daily
05 Mar

Stocks Are Crazy Risky Now – We’ll Reveal The Perfect Hedge

There’s some volatility in the markets that we haven’t seen for a long time.

The increased volatility is a sign of nervousness and the market is looking for direction.

No one knows where things will go in the short term as that’s impossible to know. Even Warren Buffett never fails to mention how he has absolutely no idea about where markets will go in the short to medium term.

If we look at things from a macro perspective, the economy is at its limits and we’ve seen the actual GDP finally reach the potential GDP. More →

By Sven Carlin Berkshire Hathaway Cash Debt Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Ray Dalio Risk Stocks Valuations Warren Buffett
02 Mar
I’ve Seen Hyperinflation, Debt Bubbles, & Stock Market Implosions… Here’s Where The U.S. Economy Is Headed
There’s a big difference between an exuberant view and a risk-reward view.

This also often leads to relative underperformance but long term outperformance, which is something difficult for 99% of investors to grasp.

This is my view on the markets now.

Introduction

I’ll start with a story of Croatia, the land I was born and raised in because while it might be a small country, it has seen so much history there is a lot to learn. More →
By Sven Carlin Debt Investiv Daily US Economy
16 Feb
This Debt-Driven Economy Is Fragile – Here’s How Fragile
We’ll discuss how fragile this debt driven economy is from a bottom up perspective.

You may be surprised by the impact of minor interest rate changes.

You should reconsider owning cyclical stocks that depend on consumer debt at this point in the economic cycle.

Introduction

Things have been good for 9 years now. This is a fact.

Today we’ll discuss how and why things could change because when things are good, people and things become weak and fragile. I’ll connect the dots with student debt, mortgages, and consumption to show how it’s all a mere illusion, or at least a big part of it is. More →
By Sven Carlin Debt Interest Rates Investiv Daily
23 Nov
The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It
All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?

I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.

As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Black Swan Events Central Banks Commodities Debt European Union FED Global Risks Inflation Investiv Daily Leverage Market Forecast Recession US Economy Valuations
11 Sep
Out Of This World Debt Levels Will Damn Future Generations
Debt levels are the key driver of economic growth in developed countries. So keep an eye on debt.

The velocity of money, household debt, car loans and sales aren’t telling a good story.

Globally, the situation isn’t much better. However, there are a few exceptions.

Introduction

In today’s article, I’ll analyze the current global debt environment.

Debt is an economic factor that is unwatched as long as things are going well but as soon at things turn south, everyone will be screaming about a debt crisis and the end of the financial world as we know it.

Given this, it’s extremely important to know what is going on, how sustainable the current debt levels are, what the impact of debt on the economy is, how to position your portfolio, and perhaps even how to take advantage of potential black swans arising from future debt instabilities. More →
By Sven Carlin Auto Industry Bank of Japan Central Banks China Debt Emerging Markets European Union FED Financial Engineering Global Risks Inflation Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Monetary Easing Recession US Economy
23 Feb
Bubble, Crisis, Bubble, Crisis – Debunking The Chinese Real Estate Sector
The Chinese government is controlling the real estate market and allowing short, two-year boom bust cycles.

Western investors don’t understand China and see either a bubble or a crash.

The best way to invest is to seize the wild market swings created by such erratic behavior.

Introduction

The question we would all like to know the answer to is this: is the Chinese real estate market in a bubble?

If it is, any kind of burst would create a credit crisis, lower economic growth, and quickly spill over first on global financial markets, and consequently onto the global economy.

There is no consensus on whether or not Chinese real estate is in a bubble. I’m going to describe both perspectives to give you the best information possible for China and Chinese real estate related investments. More →
By Sven Carlin China Debt Emerging Markets Global Growth Stocks Investiv Daily Real Estate
12 Jan
The Edge Of The Cliff No One Wants To See: A Look At The Economic Cycle & Debt
The economic recovery hasn’t lowered debt levels while interest rates are starting to increase.

Expect lower consumer, corporate, and government spending.

When you invest, please be aware of what is described below.

Introduction

Nature works in cycles, there is winter, summer, drought, rain, monsoons, a year with mosquitos, one without, El Niño, La Niña, a good crop, bad crop, etc. As we are part of nature, cyclicality is inherent to our behavior and our behavior is reflected in the economy as we are the economy.

It’s important to continually analyze and mark where we are in the economic cycle in order to have a better perspective on how to position ourselves as investors. Most analysts and financial professionals look in the rear-view mirror to predict the future and then focus on only one year. This is because it doesn’t pay to look beyond a year as it would force them to tell the truth and consequently lower their selling commissions because not many would invest if they knew that there was a risk of losing 50% of their investment in the next few years. More →
By Sven Carlin Credit Cycle Debt Inflation Investiv Daily
09 Dec
Check Your Dividend Yielders Before It’s Too Late
Higher interest rates will increase required returns while higher debt costs will lower available cash for dividends.

However, things vary extremely among sectors so check your portfolio stock by stock.

The current 5% shareholder yield is unsustainable with aggregate earnings yielding 3.93%.

Introduction

Things are changing!

We have been enjoying a period where yielders were in high demand as interest rates declined. However, there are two things that will have a severe impact on dividends and asset prices. The first is that low interest rates enabled companies to take on more debt and increase their return to shareholders while keeping their interest expenses low. The second is that with the Fed about to increase interest rates and the yield on the 10-year treasury note up 75% from its July low, the value of your dividend yielders is also about to collapse because stocks simply carry more risk than treasuries. More →
By Sven Carlin Debt Dividends Investiv Daily Stocks
04 Dec

Sunday Edition: A Debt Bomb Sure To Implode

The recent spike in interest rates over the last few months is a hot topic among financial news and media outlets. And it should be – it’s alarming.

The rate on the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond shot up from 2.10% in early July to over 3% where it now sits. Many, including myself, are now calling for the end of the 35+ year bond bull market.

I believe when we look back in 20 years, the 177’11 July high in bonds will mark the beginning of a new long-term bear market in bonds. More →

By Shane Rawlings Bonds Debt FED Investiv Daily Sunday Edition U.S. Treasuries US Economy

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