Recession

28 May

This Stock Is A Canary In A Coal Mine For The Economy & You Should Be Paying Attention

History tells us that when the FED starts to raise interest rates, sooner or later the economy will be hit.

Today, we’ll discuss what’s going on with rates and the economy, and where we are in the current economic cycle in order to determine portfolio risk exposures.

The Relationship Between Interest Rates & The Economy

If we take a look at the chart below representing the effective federal funds rate, we can see that usually but not always, a tightening period is followed by a recession depicted by the grey columns. More →

By Sven Carlin FED Housing Market Interest Rates Investiv Daily Recession US Economy
25 Apr
Here’s Why You Should Worry About What Happened In The Market Yesterday
The thing with the stock market is that it gives you signals way ahead of time, but nobody wants to listen. The things I’ve been blabbering about over the past two years are the following:

Higher interest rates will come just as the FED told us they would.

Higher interest rates will squeeze valuations.

Higher interest rates will slow down economic growth.

Higher interest rates will slow down earnings growth.

So, let’s start by discussing these.

The 10-Year Treasury Passes 3%

When the 10-year Treasury was below 3%, nobody seemed to care except a few crazy analysts like this scribe. However, when it crossed 3%, the market suddenly looked at what had been going on for nearly the last two years. More →
By Sven Carlin Corporate Earnings Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession S&P 500 Stocks US Economy Valuations
23 Apr
This Market Is Getting Crazy – Here’s How Buffett Says To Invest In It
We’ll discuss some news first, including commodity prices, chip guidance, and covenant ratios.

Then we’ll put things into perspective and see what an investor can do in this market.

I’ll give you a few tools that will make investing easy for you, if you can handle them.

Introduction

Last week, the stock market was positive for half of the week and then negative for the remainder. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Cash ECB FED Inflation Interest Rates Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession US Economy Warren Buffett
18 Apr

These 4 Steps Will Save You In The Upcoming Market Crash

A stock market crash is always around the corner.

In the last 18 years, we’ve seen two crashes of 50% and if you live in the Netherlands, you still dream of those 2000 highs. Nevertheless, a 9-year bull market quickly erases all the painful memories.

But forgetting what happened and how it looked is dangerous. If you haven’t lived through a stock market crash, you should at least try and think about it in order to be prepared as much as you can be.

More →

By Kristina Keene Bull Market Dollar Cost Averaging Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Recession Stocks US Economy
17 Apr
The Flattening Yield Curve Means Trouble Ahead. Here’s What You Need To Know.
What is the yield curve?

The yield curve is flattening and if it inverts, there will be a recession.

What you can do.

Introduction

In this article, I’m going to explain what the yield curve is, what a flattening or steepening yield curve means, how the yield curve impacts the economy, and see whether the current yield curve indicates that we are close to a recession in 2018. More →
By Sven Carlin Credit Cycle FED Interest Rates Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession Risk Trends US Economy
09 Apr

These Will Be The Causes Of The Next Recession

After a long period of stillness, we are finally seeing two-way markets which is a clear indication that the market is looking for direction.

Last week we saw two days with drops larger than 2%, and the so called Kudlow rally on Wednesday. More →

By Sven Carlin Interest Rates Investiv Daily Recession Stocks US Economy
05 Apr

We’re At the End Of The Current Economic Cycle – Get Ready For A Wild Ride

Yesterday, we discussed what’s going on with stocks. One of the explanations is that the market is pricing in the end of the economic cycle. If that’s true, there is a lot more downside for stocks.

Let’s see what the latest economic news is, how that fits the economic cycle, what the probability for a recession is, and what we should expect from stocks.

Economic News

The economic news is relatively good. Jobless claims have reached the lowest level in history. More →

By Sven Carlin Credit Cycle Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession
04 Apr
This Is Why The Stock Market Is Crashing
I’ll discuss the short-term perspective on what is going on, and the long term.

Introduction

I’ve been writing about the risk the stock market carries forever now. However, nothing was really happening until the last two months when volatility spiked and stocks actually went below their all-time highs. More →
By Sven Carlin Investiv Daily Market Forecast Recession US Economy
28 Dec
Swimming Naked?
The rising tide has really lifted all boats, but it’s extremely important to dive deeper and see who is swimming naked.

This will allow you to protect yourself from extreme downside and to potentially also earn something with some cheap hedges.

There are companies with no organic growth that have price to earnings ratios of 500…

Introduction

It will soon be nine years that we have been enjoying a rising economic tide. Economic policies around the world are still accommodative, and corporations really don’t have difficulties in finding financing.

However, if you have been through economic kindergarten, you know that the only thing sure in economics is cyclicality. Therefore, it’s important to see who will be swimming naked when the tide shifts, how to be protected from such a possibility, and perhaps even how to take advantage of it. More →
By Sven Carlin All-Weather Portfolio Credit Ratings FED Hedging Inflation Interest Rates Investing Strategy Investiv Daily Recession
23 Nov
The Stock Market Will Crash In 2018 – Here’s What Could Trigger It
All indicators show a stock market crash is imminent, but what will the trigger be?

I’ll discuss what can happen and how bad it could get.

As for the timing of it, the best thing is to be prepared for anything.

Introduction

To see whether the stock market will crash in 2018 or not, we have to first see what makes a stock market crash and the best way to do that is to look at the 2001 and 2008 market crashes because the financial environment prior to those crashes resembles the current market environment. More →
By Sven Carlin Bank of Japan Black Swan Events Central Banks Commodities Debt European Union FED Global Risks Inflation Investiv Daily Leverage Market Forecast Recession US Economy Valuations

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